Before the Greeks say goodbye to the great European experiment, both Athens and the EU need to gird themselves for the mother of all economic fall-outs.
Is Greece ready to go it alone?
That's become the guessing game du jour after anti-austerity parties captured a shocking share of the vote in the latest Greek elections. But don't expect the drachma to return any time soon.
It won't be easy for either Greece or Europe to prepare for a divorce. If it was, they'd have already done so. Greece needs to get its budget ready, and Europe needs to get its firewall ready. The politics are terrible for both.
THE BUDGET AND THE FIREWALL
Right now, Greece is running a primary deficit. That means the Greek government would still need to borrow money even if it didn't have any interest payments to make. A euro exit and default wouldn't solve its austerity problem. A euro exit and default would create an even worse austerity problem -- or an inflation one. Remember: Greece is getting piles of cash from Europe as part of its bailout. Greece would lose that money if it defaults. And they wouldn't be able to replace it. Nobody wants to lend to them now and likely won't for a long, long time. Greece would have to either cut spending and raise taxes much more, or print the difference. It's a choice between hyperausterity and hyperinflation.
A premature Greek exit wouldn't be much better for Europe. It would set off a potentially euro-ending bank run. Depositors in Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy would pull their money out of local banks and move it to "safe" countries like Germany. The logic is simple: If countries can leave the euro zone, then not all euros are created equal. Euros in Italian banks might turn into cheaper lira overnight. Euros in German banks would stay euros -- or maybe even turn into stronger deutsche marks overnight. Investors would see this and bet on a breakup. Borrowing costs would soar.
There would only be one way to prevent a meltdown: Throw money at it. It would be the mother-of-all-bailouts to deal with the mother-of-all-bank runs. (A firewall is just a bailout fund that you haven't used yet). The ECB would have to buy bonds directly from troubled governments. And the Germans would have to give bonds to troubled governments -- a joint eurobond. It would take such a complete show of financial support to convince markets that Europe was determined to save itself at any cost.
But just as there is an unbalance of payments between Greece and Europe, there is also an unbalance of challenges. Greece's primary balance is more of an economic problem than a political hurdle. Europe's firewall is more of a political hurdle than an economic problem. That makes this a dangerous game.
NO DRACHMA (YET)
Neither side is ready for a split. Greece doesn't have a primary surplus and Europe doesn't have a genuine firewall. That gives both every incentive to kick the can a bit more. So that's exactly what we should expect -- for now.
The problem is that people eventually get tired of kicking the can -- and convince themselves that they might not need to.
As Greece gets closer and closer to a primary surplus, it will ask for more and more from Europe. That's basically what far-left leader Alexis Tsipras wants to do now. But Europe doesn't want to give in too much. Besides, Europe could just bailout everybody after a default, like the U.S. did with TARP. It would be messy -- and far worse than setting up a firewall in advance. But the world wouldn't end. So both sides might think that they have more leverage than they actually do. That's how you lose a game of chicken.
The safest strategy is simply to stop playing the game. Europe should create a firewall, kick Greece out of the euro, but then provide bridge loans to the troubled country.
People look to Amy Schumer and her fellow jokers not just to make fun of the world, but to make sense of it. And maybe even to help fix it.
This week, in a much-anticipated sketch on her Comedy Central show, Amy Schumer staged a trial of Bill Cosby in “the court of public opinion.” Schumer—her character, at any rate—played the role of the defense. “Let’s remind ourselves what’s at stake here,” she argued to the jury. “If convicted, the next time you put on a rerun of The Cosby Show you may wince a little. Might feel a little pang. And none of us deserve that. We don’t deserve to feel that pang.”
Her conclusion? “We deserve to dance like no one’s watching, and watch like no one’s raping.”
Ooof. This is the kind of thing that gets Inside Amy Schumer referred to as “the most feminist show on television,” and her act in general called, in a phrase that reveals as much about her craft as about Schumer herself, “comedy with a message.” But while Schumer’s work is operating at the vanguard of popular comedy, it’s also in line with the work being done by her fellow performers: jokes that tend to treat humor not just as an end in itself, but as a vehicle for making a point. Watch like no one’s raping.
We're all going to die and we all know it. This can be both a burden and a blessing.
In the heart of every parent lives the tightly coiled nightmare that his child will die. It might spring at logical times—when a toddler runs into the street, say—or it might sneak up in quieter moments. The fear is a helpful evolutionary motivation for parents to protect their children, but it's haunting nonetheless.
The ancient Stoic philosopher Epictetus advised parents to indulge that fear. “What harm is it, just when you are kissing your little child, to say: Tomorrow you will die?”he wrote in his Discourses.
Some might say Epictetus was an asshole. William Irvine thinks he was on to something.
“The Stoics had the insight that the prospect of death can actually make our lives much happier than they would otherwise be,” he says. “You’re supposed to allow yourself to have a flickering thought that someday you’re going to die, and someday the people you love are going to die. I’ve tried it, and it’s incredibly powerful. Well, I am a 21st-century practicing Stoic.”
Caves and tunnels have always been part of human life.
Caves and tunnels have always been part of human life. We've grown more adept at shaping these underground shelters and passages over the millennia, and today we dig for hundreds of reasons. We excavate to find both literal and cultural treasures, digging mines and unearthing archaeological discoveries. We use caverns for stable storage, for entertainment, and for an effective shelter from natural and man-made disasters. And as the planet's surface becomes ever more crowded, and national borders are closed, tunnels provide pathways for our vehicles and for smugglers of every kind. Collected below are more recent subterranean scenes from around the world.
For those who didn't go to prestigious schools, don't come from money, and aren't interested in sports and booze—it's near impossible to gain access to the best paying jobs.
As income inequality in the U.S. strikes historic highs, many people are starting to feel that the American dream is either dead or out of reach. Only 64 percent of Americans still believe that it’s possible to go from rags to riches, and, in another poll, 63 percent said they did not believe their children would be better off than they were. These days, the idea that anyone who works hard can become wealthy is at best a tough sell.
What it’s like to watch a komodo dragon get dissected
Try to imagine how hard it would be to skin a Komodo dragon.
It is harder than that.
The problem is that the giant lizard’s hide is not just tough and leathery, but also reinforced. Many of the scales contain a small nugget of bone, called an osteoderm, which together form a kind of pointillist body armor. Sawing through these is tough on both arms and blades.
I’m at the Royal Veterinary College, about 20 kilometers outside of central London, watching four biologists put their shoulders into the task. A Komodo dragon, which recently died in London Zoo for unexplained reasons, lies on a steel gurney in front of them. Their task, over the next three days, is to dissect it and measure all of its muscles. So, first, the skin must come off.
The danger of uploading one’s consciousness to a computer without a suicide switch
Imagine a supercomputer so advanced that it could hold the contents of a human brain. The Google engineer Ray Kurzweil famously believes that this will be possible by 2045. Organized technologists are seeking to transfer human personalities to non-biological carriers, “extending life, including to the point of immortality.” My gut says that they’ll never get there. But say I’m wrong. Were it possible, would you upload the contents of your brain to a computer before death, extending your conscious moments on this earth indefinitely? Or would you die as your ancestors did, passing into nothingness or an unknown beyond human comprehension?
The promise of a radically extended lifespan, or even immortality, would tempt many. But it seems to me that they’d be risking something very much like hell on earth.
New research confirms what they say about nice guys.
Smile at the customer. Bake cookies for your colleagues. Sing your subordinates’ praises. Share credit. Listen. Empathize. Don’t drive the last dollar out of a deal. Leave the last doughnut for someone else.
Sneer at the customer. Keep your colleagues on edge. Claim credit. Speak first. Put your feet on the table. Withhold approval. Instill fear. Interrupt. Ask for more. And by all means, take that last doughnut. You deserve it.
Follow one of those paths, the success literature tells us, and you’ll go far. Follow the other, and you’ll die powerless and broke. The only question is, which is which?
Of all the issues that preoccupy the modern mind—Nature or nurture? Is there life in outer space? Why can’t America field a decent soccer team?—it’s hard to think of one that has attracted so much water-cooler philosophizing yet so little scientific inquiry. Does it pay to be nice? Or is there an advantage to being a jerk?
The Islamic State is no mere collection of psychopaths. It is a religious group with carefully considered beliefs, among them that it is a key agent of the coming apocalypse. Here’s what that means for its strategy—and for how to stop it.
What is the Islamic State?
Where did it come from, and what are its intentions? The simplicity of these questions can be deceiving, and few Western leaders seem to know the answers. In December, The New York Times published confidential comments by Major General Michael K. Nagata, the Special Operations commander for the United States in the Middle East, admitting that he had hardly begun figuring out the Islamic State’s appeal. “We have not defeated the idea,” he said. “We do not even understand the idea.” In the past year, President Obama has referred to the Islamic State, variously, as “not Islamic” and as al-Qaeda’s “jayvee team,” statements that reflected confusion about the group, and may have contributed to significant strategic errors.
The grim 1960s L.A. crime drama stars David Duchovny as a detective on a collision course with the notorious 60s killer.
Starting with its title, NBC’s Aquarius is a TV show at war with its own contradictions. The year is 1967, and as the song goes, it’s the dawning of the Age of Aquarius—flower children are converging on California, drugs and free love are flowing, but, sadly, there are still crimes to be solved. There’s plenty of weight to this “event series,” debuting Thursday, which among other things promises to tell the story of Charles Manson’s rise to depravity in the San Fernando Valley. But most of all, it’s a straightforward cop show, starring David Duchovny as a bullet-headed detective who has a few things to learn about the changing world around him—and the show’s rigid adherence to the conventions of that genre is its ultimate limitation.
A song from 2011 is causing controversy now, proving how slowly the genre’s attitudes about women are evolving.
The rapper Action Bronson, whose major-label debut came out recently, is mostly known for his love of food, his large frame, and the fact that he sounds so much like Ghostface Killah that even Ghostface Killah gets confused sometimes. He will likely now be known by more people for one particular lyric of his, due to a headline-making petition asking Toronto’s NXNE music festival to kick the artist off the bill because, in its words, he “glorifies gang-raping and murdering women.”
The lyrics in question come from the 2011 song, “Consensual Rape,” which has a verse that mentions giving a girl MDMA and then having very rough sex with her. The petition also calls out a 2011 music video that portrays Bronson happily disposing of a woman’s corpse.