Auto makers are worried about the Millennials. They just don't seem to care about owning a car. Is this a generational shift, or just a lousy economy at work?
This week, the New York Times pulled back the curtain on General Motors' recent, slightly bewildered efforts to connect with the Millennials -- that giant generational cohort born in the 1980s and 1990s whose growing consumer power is reshaping the way corporate America markets its wares. Unfortunately for car companies, today's teens and twenty-somethings don't seem all that interested in buying a set of wheels. They're not even particularly keen on driving.
The Times notes that less than half of potential drivers age 19 or younger had a license in 2008, down from nearly two-thirds in 1998. The fraction of 20-to-24-year-olds with a license has also dropped. And according to CNW research, adults between the ages of 21 and 34 buy just 27 percent of all new vehicles sold in America, a far cry from the peak of 38 percent in 1985.
There are plenty of reasons to suspect the latter. The Millennials have become notorious for delaying, or entirely skipping, the traditional markers of adulthood. But as my colleague Derek Thompson has argued, that's largely because the economic milieu that shaped their parents' and and grandparents' lives has disappeared. How can you buy a home when you're underemployed and saddled with student debt? Why would you want to after the horror of the collapsing housing bubble? And why would a 25-year-old woman get married when so many of the men she knows are out of work, while she's financially independent?
Collectively, the Millennials still have a tremendous amount of spending money. But although they may have been synonymous with youth culture way back in the 20th century, cars are extremely adult investments -- exactly the type twenty-somethings tend to shy from now. Even a bottom-tier Kia Sedan will run you $12,000, not counting the monthly cost of insurance, repairs, and filling up on $3.90-a-gallon gasoline. If there are reasonable, nearby alternatives to owning -- say, paying for a Zip Car membership, or taking the subway -- why commit to the expense?
Of course, Millennials are more likely than past generations to live in an urban community, and this may be part of what terrifies car markers. About 32 percent reside in cities, somewhat higher than the proportion of Generation X'ers or Baby Boomers who did when they were the same age, according to a 2009 Pew Research Center report. But as the Wall Street Journal reports, surveys have found that 88 percent want to live in an urban environment. When they're forced to settle down in a suburb, they prefer communities like Bethesda, Maryland, or Arlington, Virginia, which feature plenty of walking distance restaurants, retail, and public transportation to nearby Washington, DC.