America's Most Depressing Employment Stat

More

There are any number of woeful statistics that you can cherry-pick to capture the awfulness of America's employment market. Long-term unemployment. Underemployment. Youth unemployment. They're all bad. If you want one number that captures the despair many of the jobless are experiencing, though, check out the workforce participation rate.

Yesterday, James Pethokoukis posted a chart that nicely illustrates what America's unemployment rate would be if so many discouraged workers hadn't simply given up on trying to find a job. Instead of 8.6%, where we're at now, we'd be hovering right about 11%.

AEI_Discouraged_Workers.png

The actual workforce participation rate dropped to 64% this month. That's down from 64.5% a year ago, and 66% at the starting line of the recession. The last time the rate was this low was 1984.

But there's one key difference? Back then, we were on an upswing. The last time the rate was this low and trending downward was in 1980. 

615_Workforce_Participation_Rates_1975_2011.jpg

The bad labor market might not be entirely to blame for the change. America's aging workforce could be playing a role too. Pethokoukis quotes a JP Morgan analysis who found the rate would only have fallen to 65.1% if each age demographic had stayed at its pre-recession participation levels. That's a best-case scenario. Some older workers might not be exiting the workforce willingly. And from a public policy perspective, it's still cold comfort. A somewhat smaller portion of the workforce might have given up on the job hunt out of frustration. But even if Americans are simply retiring to spend time with the grandkids, it still means a smaller portion of the country will be paying taxes, while more will be collecting Social Security and Medicare. Either way you come at it, the number is depressing. 

Jump to comments

Jordan Weissmann is an associate editor at The Atlantic. He has written for a number of publications, including The Washington Post and The National Law Journal.

Get Today's Top Stories in Your Inbox (preview)


Elsewhere on the web

Join the Discussion

After you comment, click Post. If you’re not already logged in you will be asked to log in or register. blog comments powered by Disqus

Video

Miami: The Next Big Start-Up City?

How the city became a center for innovation

Video

Video

A Brief History of Romantic Comedies

From The Atlantic's Chris Orr

Video

Video

Life in 'the New Arctic'

A moving portrait of a fading landscape

Video

Video

The Rise of New York City

A fascinating look at Manhattan in the 1940s

Video

'I Thought It Was Really Funny, but No One Else Did'

A day with New Yorker cartoonist Joe Dator

Video

New Yorkers: The Winemaker

Make your own wine ... in New York City

Video

What Is Methane Hydrate?

"Flaming ice" is a vast natural energy source

Video

NASA's Time-Lapse of the Sun

Now with epic dubstep music

Video

A Video Letter From the Editor

Highlights from the May 2013 issue

Video

Shaken Not Tuned: Cocktail Experiments

Can a tuning fork improve a cocktail?

Video

Video

The Rise of Environmentalism

Tracking 50 years, from the Love Canal disaster to Greenpeace

Video

Is He Cheating? A 1950s Guide

'That little blonde secretary from the office?’

Video

New Yorkers: Vintage Vacuum-Tube Amps

Risking electric shock to restore old amplifiers

Video

The DIY Piano-Bicycle

Everybody needs a hobby

Writers

Up
Down

More in Business

In Focus

2013 National Geographic Traveler Photo Contest