Chart of the Day: Let's Call It Jobtober

More

Here's a bit of unexpected good news: hiring may be picking up this month. Despite extremely weak consumer sentiment and general economic sluggishness, Gallup indicates that the unemployment rate is now the lowest since it peaked during the recession. Is the jobs picture really improving?

First, here's the chart from Gallup:

gallup unemployment 2011-10.gif

You can see that 8.3% is the best value shown on the chart, which goes back to the beginning of 2010. That's when the labor market began to modestly improve after unemployment peaked in 2009. Gallup shows the jobless rate declining significantly from its 9.2% rate in September.

And the good news doesn't stop there. The pollster also finds that the broader measure of underemployment declined this month. Its rate was down to 17.5%, the second lowest value it has recorded since 2010 holiday shopping-related jobs helped to push it down to 17.2% late last year.

But that observation raises an important caveat: Gallup's rate is not seasonally adjusted. So the firm speculates that temporary Halloween-related retail jobs could be boosting employment. That might be true, but nearly a 1% drop in the unemployment rate sure would mean a lot of Halloween jobs. Most retailers haven't started hiring for Christmas yet.

We'll have to see whether the government reading concurs with Gallup's good news in a few weeks when we get October's official national unemployment rate. Seeing employment rise strongly this month could provide consumers the strong dose of good news they need. If their sentiment picks up and spending rises, then the recovery could find its footing.

Jump to comments

Daniel Indiviglio was an associate editor at The Atlantic from 2009 through 2011. He is now the Washington, D.C.-based columnist for Reuters Breakingviews. He is also a 2011 Robert Novak Journalism Fellow through the Phillips Foundation. More

Indiviglio has also written for Forbes. Prior to becoming a journalist, he spent several years working as an investment banker and a consultant.
Get Today's Top Stories in Your Inbox (preview)


Elsewhere on the web

Join the Discussion

After you comment, click Post. If you’re not already logged in you will be asked to log in or register. blog comments powered by Disqus

Video

Miami: The Next Big Start-Up City?

How the city became a center for innovation

Video

Video

A Brief History of Romantic Comedies

From The Atlantic's Chris Orr

Video

Life in 'the New Arctic'

A moving portrait of a fading landscape

Video

Video

The Rise of New York City

A fascinating look at Manhattan in the 1940s

Video

What Is Methane Hydrate?

"Flaming ice" is a vast natural energy source

Video

NASA's Time-Lapse of the Sun

Now with epic dubstep music

Video

Shaken Not Tuned: Cocktail Experiments

Can a tuning fork improve a cocktail?

Video

Video

Is He Cheating? A 1950s Guide

'That little blonde secretary from the office?’

Video

New Yorkers: Vintage Vacuum-Tube Amps

Risking electric shock to restore old amplifiers

Video

The DIY Piano-Bicycle

Everybody needs a hobby

Video

What Does It Take to Make Real Craft Gin?

Tour the Green Hat Gin distillery

Video

Letter From the Editor

The June 2013 issue

Video

What Straights Can Learn From Same-Sex Couples

New insight from decades of research

Video

The End of the Mall Rat

A tribute to that pillar of teen culture

Writers

Up
Down

More in Business

In Focus

Picking up the Pieces After the Tornado in Moore, Oklahoma

Just In