Economists say that more spending will create jobs, but it could be a decade or more before some key sectors hire back the workers they've cut
In June 2009, the U.S. unemployment rate was 9.5%. In June 2010, it was 9.5%. In June 2011, it was 9.2%. That's it? In two years, the unemployment rate has fallen by just 0.3%? If it falls by that amount each year, we won't see unemployment dip below 6% for over a decade. And that ignores the millions of unemployed Americans not even accounted for in the official statistic for technical reasons. Why is hiring so slow?
At this point, we know that the unemployment problem is unyielding. Although we've heard lots of ideas for ways to try to create jobs, even the best ones would have a modest short-term impact. A few hundred thousand jobs here or there would be great, but they aren't going to get us back to full employment anytime soon. The U.S. needs about 6 million jobs just to get the unemployment rate back to near 6% -- not including the 125,000 or so new jobs needed each month just to maintain the current unemployment rate. In 2011, the economy is averaging just 126,000 new jobs per month.
Even if demand soars, unemployment won't suddenly plummet.
Most economists agree that for unemployment to decline significantly, consumer demand must rise. As sales increase, firms will need to hire additional workers. But even if demand soars, unemployment won't suddenly plummet.
You can see why by looking at the actual job losses from the sectors that have shrunk since the recession began. The chart below breaks down the 6.1 million job losses since September 2008, when the unemployment rate was just 6.2%.
For starters, you can see that nearly half of the job losses, amounting to more than 3 million, came from two industries: construction and manufacturing. Adding in retail, government, and financial activities accounts for another 25%. The job losses are highly concentrated in a couple of select industries.
And here's another way to look at this data:
The color-coding here matters.
In Pink: Structural, Long-Term Problems
Those in pink are industries where employment won't reach its post-recession levels for probably a decade or more. Too much building occurred during the real estate bubble. Even when construction does pick up again, the sector won't employ nearly as many people as it did during the boom. The government job losses shown are all due to state and local public sector job cuts. With the nation facing austerity over the next decade or more, government budgets will only tighten. Finally, stricter financial regulation will likely result in fewer financial jobs over the next several years or slower growth at best.
In other words, we're not going to see the 2.5 million jobs lost by these sectors return for a very long time, if ever. To find employment, most Americans laid off in these industries need to change careers. This is a structural problem.
In Orange: Pseudo-structural, Medium-term Problems
The news is only a little better for the next two sectors, in orange. The theory goes: as demand returns, more manufacturing and retail jobs should follow. These two sectors together account for another 2 million jobs losses, so their improvement would certainly help. But here's the problem: demand has returned. Inflation-adjusted consumer spending was 3% higher in May 2011 than in September 2008, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Americans are buying even more stuff now than they were when unemployment was 6.2%.