Oil Expanded Exports and Shrunk Trade Gap in April

More

The economy generally benefits when the U.S. sells more goods, but in this case the reasons for the growth are hampering the recovery

590 oil tanker REUTERS Kimberly White.jpg

In the midst of an avalanche of lukewarm to negative economic reports over the past few weeks, the latest trade numbers provide some positive news this morning. The trade gap shrunk in April, as exports rose and imports fell, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In fact, exports high another new high during the month. Unfortunately, looking at the cause for these changes provides less reason for optimism. 

Here's the chart for imports, exports, and the trade deficit:

trade 2011-04.png

Let's start with exports, because they have the potential to have a significant positive impact on the economy. They rose by $2.2 billion to $175.6 billion in April. That's not as big a jump as we saw in March, when they rose by $8.2 billion, but an increase is certainly better than the alternative.

Imports declined by $1.0 billion to $219.2 billion. So they still outweigh exports, but the trade gap shrunk to $43.7 billion -- the smallest it's been all year.

That's all great, right? While it's hard to be unhappy about exports rising and the trade deficit shrinking, the causes of this positive outcome in April aren't very reassuring. Oil served as a major driver of the change. Fuel oil and petroleum products made up $2.1 billion more exports in April, while they drove down exports by $2.1 billion. Put another way, if you take oil out of the equation, then export growth was stagnant, imports grew, and the trade gap widened.

Of course, oil is a part of the equation, and in April it helped. In a sense, the same thing that has hurt the U.S. economy in recent months -- higher demand for oil, which has driven up gasoline prices -- provided a little relief in April. Other nations bought more U.S. oil, increasing exports.

Imported oil could have declined if U.S. consumers demanded less. This possibility doesn't seem very plausible, however, as the amount imported shrunk by a fairly significant 5.5%. This likely signifies that the U.S. became more dependent on its own supply of oil during the month.

Here's a snapshot of the big movers for goods imported and exported in April:

trade 2011-04 movers.png

One notable item on the imports side is autos. They fell by $2.8 billion. That could be due in large part to the supply chain issues that Japanese automakers had been experiencing after the recent earthquake that devastated the nation. Indeed, imports from Japan dropped by 25.5%.

So we should certainly not be disappointed to see exports rise, imports fall, and the trade gap shrink. But under the circumstances in April, there's little reason to broadly celebrate this report. One driver of the change was oil, which had more of a negative effect on the U.S. economy overall than the small benefit a slightly better trade balance provides. Moreover, a natural disaster served as a major reason for the decline in imports. Once these unusual economic shocks dissipate, we'll be able to better understand how U.S. trade is trending.

Image Credit: REUTERS/Kimberly White

Jump to comments

Daniel Indiviglio was an associate editor at The Atlantic from 2009 through 2011. He is now the Washington, D.C.-based columnist for Reuters Breakingviews. He is also a 2011 Robert Novak Journalism Fellow through the Phillips Foundation. More

Indiviglio has also written for Forbes. Prior to becoming a journalist, he spent several years working as an investment banker and a consultant.
Get Today's Top Stories in Your Inbox (preview)

Video

More Video
Here's What Happens When You Light a Fire in Space


Elsewhere on the web

Join the Discussion

After you comment, click Post. If you’re not already logged in you will be asked to log in or register. blog comments powered by Disqus

Video

Miami: The Next Big Start-Up City?

How the city became a center for innovation

Video

Video

A Brief History of Romantic Comedies

From The Atlantic's Chris Orr

Video

Life in 'the New Arctic'

A moving portrait of a fading landscape

Video

Video

The Rise of New York City

A fascinating look at Manhattan in the 1940s

Video

What Is Methane Hydrate?

"Flaming ice" is a vast natural energy source

Video

NASA's Time-Lapse of the Sun

Now with epic dubstep music

Video

Shaken Not Tuned: Cocktail Experiments

Can a tuning fork improve a cocktail?

Video

Video

Is He Cheating? A 1950s Guide

'That little blonde secretary from the office?’

Video

New Yorkers: Vintage Vacuum-Tube Amps

Risking electric shock to restore old amplifiers

Video

The DIY Piano-Bicycle

Everybody needs a hobby

Video

What Does It Take to Make Real Craft Gin?

Tour the Green Hat Gin distillery

Video

What Straights Can Learn From Same-Sex Couples

New insight from decades of research

Video

The End of the Mall Rat

A tribute to that pillar of teen culture

Video

The Wonderful World of Capitalism

An adorable 1950s cartoon

Video

New Yorkers: Miss New York USA

An unconventional beauty queen.

Writers

Up
Down

More in Business

In Focus

Protests Spread Across Brazil