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Megan McArdle

Megan McArdle - Megan McArdle is a senior editor for The Atlantic who writes about business and economics. She has worked at three start-ups, a consulting firm, an investment bank, a disaster recovery firm at Ground Zero, and The Economist. She is currently on leave.
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Megan was born and raised on the Upper West Side of Manhattan, and yes, she does enjoy her lattes, as well as the occasional extra-dry skim-milk cappuccino. Her checkered work history includes three start-ups, four years as a technology project manager for a boutique consulting firm, a summer as an associate at an investment bank, and a year spent as sort of an executive copy girl for one of the disaster-recovery firms at Ground Zero � all before the age of 30.

While working at Ground Zero, Megan started Live From the WTC, a blog focused on economics, business, and cooking. She may or may not have been the first major economics blogger, depending on whether we are allowed to throw outlying variables such as Brad Delong out of the set. From there it was but a few steps down the slippery slope to freelance journalism. She has worked in various capacities for The Economist, where she wrote about economics and oversaw the founding of Free Exchange, the magazine's economics blog. She has also maintained her own blog, Asymmetrical Information, which moved to The Atlantic, along with its owner, in August 2007.

Megan holds a bachelor's degree in English literature from the University of Pennsylvania and an M.B.A. from the University of Chicago. After a lifetime as a New Yorker, she now resides in northwest Washington, D.C., where she is still trying to figure out what one does with an apartment larger than 400 square feet.

A Little Housing Mystery

By Megan McArdle
Apr 19 2011, 10:40 AM ET Comment

Home prices in the US right now look like they still have a ways to fall, according to a graph that's been making the blog rounds lately:Case-Shiller-updated1.jpg


Bryan Caplan points out that this is much worse than the experience in the Great Depression:

Home prices did amazingly well during the Great Depression. According to Schiller's index, it looks likes inflation-adjusted prices fell from about 74 to 69 between 1929 and 1933 - about a 7% decline. By 1940, they were up to about 82. The double-dip recession of 1937-8 shows up as a small downward blip in the housing market, nothing more.

What gives? I realize that nominal housing prices must have declined massively during the rapid 1929-33 deflation. But the resilience of the housing market in the depths of the Depression is still most puzzling.

Part of this is that house prices simply didn't have so far to fall, because they hadn't run up so sharply.  But still, it's mysterious, because other measures--like employment, GDP, and industrial production--had fallen much more sharply.  Why didn't houses suffer so much?

I can tell a bunch of stories--the housing market was much less dependent on debt at the time, and people were less likely to live alone, so they weren't so vulnerable to a single income shock.  But I don't have any proof, so they're just stories.


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