How Should We Interpret Record Bullishness on Global Stocks?

Playing the stock market is a complicated game. Expectations and the future matter. The present and past mean little. So how should we interpret that following poll results, via Myra P. Saefong of Marketwatch?

Fund managers are more bullish about global equities than at any time in the past decade, according to a survey released Tuesday.

Of 188 fund managers polled around the world, a net 67% say they are overweight global equities -- the highest reading since the survey began asking the question in April 2001, according to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey for February.

On one hand, net 67% of fund managers' agreement could indicate that global equities are in for a strong period of gains. On the other hand, by the time word is out so widely about an investment's attractiveness that you or I read about it, the investment may be overripe. So instead, a reversal could even be in order. The article also goes on:

The survey also noted respondents' changing attitudes regarding investment risk: Only 5% of fund managers had an overweighting toward global emerging-markets equities, down from January's net 43%.

That's the steepest monthly decline in exposure to emerging markets in the survey's history.

This makes matters a little more difficult to grasp. They're heavily invested in global stocks, but not high global growth companies. That could imply that their holdings of global value stocks is a longer-term play, so there could be less fear of making the follower's folly, if you think they could be right. But you can decide for yourself, and re-balance your 401(k)s accordingly.

Read the full story at MarketWatch.

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Daniel Indiviglio was an associate editor at The Atlantic from 2009 through 2011. He is now the Washington, D.C.-based columnist for Reuters Breakingviews. He is also a 2011 Robert Novak Journalism Fellow through the Phillips Foundation. More

Indiviglio has also written for Forbes. Prior to becoming a journalist, he spent several years working as an investment banker and a consultant.

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