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Megan McArdle

Megan McArdle - Megan McArdle is a senior editor for The Atlantic who writes about business and economics. She has worked at three start-ups, a consulting firm, an investment bank, a disaster recovery firm at Ground Zero, and The Economist. She is currently on leave.
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Megan was born and raised on the Upper West Side of Manhattan, and yes, she does enjoy her lattes, as well as the occasional extra-dry skim-milk cappuccino. Her checkered work history includes three start-ups, four years as a technology project manager for a boutique consulting firm, a summer as an associate at an investment bank, and a year spent as sort of an executive copy girl for one of the disaster-recovery firms at Ground Zero � all before the age of 30.

While working at Ground Zero, Megan started Live From the WTC, a blog focused on economics, business, and cooking. She may or may not have been the first major economics blogger, depending on whether we are allowed to throw outlying variables such as Brad Delong out of the set. From there it was but a few steps down the slippery slope to freelance journalism. She has worked in various capacities for The Economist, where she wrote about economics and oversaw the founding of Free Exchange, the magazine's economics blog. She has also maintained her own blog, Asymmetrical Information, which moved to The Atlantic, along with its owner, in August 2007.

Megan holds a bachelor's degree in English literature from the University of Pennsylvania and an M.B.A. from the University of Chicago. After a lifetime as a New Yorker, she now resides in northwest Washington, D.C., where she is still trying to figure out what one does with an apartment larger than 400 square feet.

Gold Looking Bubblicious

By Megan McArdle
Nov 9 2010, 9:48 AM ET Comment

In the wake of the Fed's decision to do even further quantitative easing, a decision which has invited criticism from China, Russia and the Euro zone, gold has now shot above $1400 an ounce.  Perhaps I'm too ready to call bubbles in assets, but this sure looks like one to me.


I know, I know--inflation!  But why gold and not, say, euros, which are currently trading at 1.4 dollars per euro?  They've gone up a bit, but nothing like gold's stratospheric rise:

au00-pres.gif

The whole idea of gold as some sort of unique store of value is badly flawed.  It doesn't make a particularly good currency, and it also doesn't make a particularly good investment.  Except when investors are panicking, its price tends to be driven by supply and its industrial and jewelry uses, which means that it's an excellent way to lose money by buying when you're panicking and then having to sell out as it's on its way down. Given that the price has already risen more than fourfold from a decade ago, this looks particularly likely right now.

It's not that quantitative easing may not cause inflation--it might.  In fact, that's sort of the point; the Fed wants a little more inflation in the money supply, in order to ease the unemployment rate.  But consider how much inflation there would have to be for this gold price to make sense.  Even assuming that something like the July 06 price of $550 is a more natural price, the price of gold is now almost triple that.  Are we going to get 10% inflation a year for a decade or so out of this quantitative easing?  Not really very likely.  Especially since what the Fed giveth, the Fed can take away--if inflation spikes that high, Uncle Ben will convert to an inflation hawk.




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