Where the Jobs Will Be

Last Friday, my list of the 20 metros with the fastest-growing jobs was posted over at The Daily Beast. Jobs are the second-biggest issue facing the United States - second only to the economy, according to a recent Gallup poll - and a pending referendum on the Obama administration in the upcoming mid-term elections. As I noted:

The United States has lost an estimated 7.4 million jobs since the onset of the economic crisis. But, the economy is on track to create some 15.3 million new jobs looking out to 2018, according to projections done by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). And more than 50 million total jobs will come open, as older workers retire and many switch jobs and careers. Total U.S. employment is projected to grow by 10.1 percent over the period, according to the BLS forecast, considerably better than the 7.4 percent growth rate for previous decade (1998-2008), and roughly in line with population growth of 10.7 percent.

But where will the new jobs be located? Which places will grow the most jobs and, conversely, which will see the biggest job losses?

To get at this, my Martin Prosperity Institute (MPI) team applied the detailed employment projections of the BLS to U.S. metro regions. The BLS forecasts job trends across 22 major occupational groups which include more than 822 specific job categories for the decade 2008 through 2018. My MPI team used these BLS national forecasts to generate similar estimates for each of America's 392 metro regions. Essentially, we used the BLS overall estimations to predict job growth in each region based on its current mix of jobs.

Over the next couple of weeks, I'll be posting the results of our analysis here. I'll get us started today with a series of maps and analyses of the metros that stand to gain the most jobs overall.

The map above shows the metros with the biggest projected gains in total employment out to 2018. New York is projected to add 578,974 jobs, the most in the country. It is followed by Los Angeles (405,392), Chicago (344,740), Washington, D.C. (261,465), Atlanta (235,036), Houston (232,001), Philadelphia (202,970), Dallas (203,202), Phoenix (191,210), and Boston (186,457).

But job growth is a function of population size; it's expected that large regions will dominate the list of the biggest job generators. So, the next map (below) plots the projected percentage change in overall employment for U.S. metros.

Rochester, Minnesota, is the biggest percentage gainer, with projected job growth of 12-plus percent. The major hub cities of the Bos-Wash corridor do well with Greater Washington in second place, Greater New York in 15th, and Boston 19th. The D.C. suburb of Bethesda and Trenton-Ewing - a suburb of both New York and Philadelphia - also number among the top 10. College towns like Charlottesville, VA, Gainesville, FL, Ithaca, NY, Boulder, CO, and Corvallis, OR, which have performed well over the course of the economic crisis, number among the nation's top 20 projected job gainers.

Presented by

Richard Florida is Co-founder and Editor at Large of CityLab.com and Senior Editor at The Atlantic. He is director of the Martin Prosperity Institute at the University of Toronto and Global Research Professor at NYU. More

Florida is author of The Rise of the Creative ClassWho's Your City?, and The Great Reset. He's also the founder of the Creative Class Group, and a list of his current clients can be found here

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