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Megan McArdle

Megan McArdle - Megan McArdle is a senior editor for The Atlantic who writes about business and economics. She has worked at three start-ups, a consulting firm, an investment bank, a disaster recovery firm at Ground Zero, and The Economist. She is currently on leave.
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Megan was born and raised on the Upper West Side of Manhattan, and yes, she does enjoy her lattes, as well as the occasional extra-dry skim-milk cappuccino. Her checkered work history includes three start-ups, four years as a technology project manager for a boutique consulting firm, a summer as an associate at an investment bank, and a year spent as sort of an executive copy girl for one of the disaster-recovery firms at Ground Zero � all before the age of 30.

While working at Ground Zero, Megan started Live From the WTC, a blog focused on economics, business, and cooking. She may or may not have been the first major economics blogger, depending on whether we are allowed to throw outlying variables such as Brad Delong out of the set. From there it was but a few steps down the slippery slope to freelance journalism. She has worked in various capacities for The Economist, where she wrote about economics and oversaw the founding of Free Exchange, the magazine's economics blog. She has also maintained her own blog, Asymmetrical Information, which moved to The Atlantic, along with its owner, in August 2007.

Megan holds a bachelor's degree in English literature from the University of Pennsylvania and an M.B.A. from the University of Chicago. After a lifetime as a New Yorker, she now resides in northwest Washington, D.C., where she is still trying to figure out what one does with an apartment larger than 400 square feet.

Department of Awful Statistics: How Much of the Government's Revenue Goes to a Few Programs?

By Megan McArdle
Jul 12 2010, 5:42 PM ET Comment

I was intrigued by this line in the Washington Post story on the budget commission: 

"Bowles said that unlike the current economic crisis, which was largely unforeseen before it hit in fall 2008, the coming fiscal calamity is staring the country in the face. "This one is as clear as a bell," he said. "This debt is like a cancer."

The commission leaders said that, at present, federal revenue is fully consumed by three programs: Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. "The rest of the federal government, including fighting two wars, homeland security, education, art, culture, you name it, veterans -- the whole rest of the discretionary budget is being financed by China and other countries," Simpson said.

I am intrigued because as far as I know, it isn't true.  It isn't true according to the CBO's YTD revenue estimates, which place revenues at around $1.5 trillion and outlays on those programs at about $850 billion.  It also isn't true according to their annual estimates, where those three programs absorb about 10.5% of GDP, while revenues are around 15% of GDP.  Even in these deficit-laden times, it isn't even sort-of true; at best, they're off by a third.  It might be true for some given month, for all I know, but that would only be because taxes tend to come in unevenly (big spikes on April 15th, as well as the three periods when Quarterly Estimateds are due), and some spending is also done in fits and spurts.  It's a transient effect which shouldn't interest anyone except the Treasury's debt planners.

Eventually, it will be true, but not any time soon.  I don't know who got this mangled, the reporter or the heads of the budget commission.  But I sure hope it's the former, because if it's the latter . . . well, we're in even bigger trouble than I thought.




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