10% Unemployment and the Midterm Elections

More

Politico has an interesting story this morning on the many summer surprises (in other words, the known unknowns) that could impact November's elections. Not to pick on the author, but this is a funny sentence:

The rule is almost ironclad: If unemployment hits double digits, it's difficult to see the party in power having a successful election year.

Not only is that rule caveat-ed to death (almost ironclad... difficult to see...), it's also not really a rule. The only midterm election in the last fifty years with unemployment anywhere near double digits was in 1982, when President Ronald Reagan and the Republicans lost 26 House seats. But that's a data point, not a law of politics. And the president's party has suffered worse House losses six times in the last half century, with unemployment as low as 4 percent.

As political scientist Seth Masket has pointed out, personal disposable income has a more statistically significant impact on midterm elections than unemployment levels.

Photobucket

Photobucket


Jump to comments
Presented by

Derek Thompson is a senior editor at The Atlantic, where he writes about economics, labor markets, and the entertainment business.

Get Today's Top Stories in Your Inbox (preview)

A Breathtaking Tour Above the Moab Desert

Filmmaker Ian Cresswell rigs an HD camera atop a remote-controlled "octocopter" for some spectacular aerial views.


Elsewhere on the web

Join the Discussion

After you comment, click Post. If you’re not already logged in you will be asked to log in or register. blog comments powered by Disqus

Video

Where Time Comes From

The clocks that coordinate your cellphone, GPS, and more

Video

Computer Vision Syndrome and You

Save your eyes. Take breaks.

Video

What Happens in 60 Seconds

Quantifying human activity around the world

Writers

Up
Down

More in Business

Just In