In recent months, the US economy entered a recovery phase following the severe credit crisis-induced recession of 2008-09. While slower than it should have been based on previous experience, growth has surprised on the upside in the past quarter. This will boost headline year-on-year growth above the current consensus for 2010. We estimate the global economy will grow over 4 percent, as measured by the IMF's year-on-year headline number (their latest published forecast is for 3.9 percent), with US growth in the 3-4 percent range - calculated on the same basis.
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