Revised Baseline Scenario: February 9, 2010

In recent months, the US economy entered a recovery phase following the severe credit crisis-induced recession of 2008-09.  While slower than it should have been based on previous experience, growth has surprised on the upside in the past quarter.  This will boost headline year-on-year growth above the current consensus for 2010.  We estimate the global economy will grow over 4 percent, as measured by the IMF's year-on-year headline number (their latest published forecast is for 3.9 percent), with US growth in the 3-4 percent range - calculated on the same basis.

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Daniel Indiviglio was an associate editor at The Atlantic from 2009 through 2011. He is now the Washington, D.C.-based columnist for Reuters Breakingviews. He is also a 2011 Robert Novak Journalism Fellow through the Phillips Foundation. More

Indiviglio has also written for Forbes. Prior to becoming a journalist, he spent several years working as an investment banker and a consultant.

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