Foreclosure tracking website RealtyTrac released its January statistics today. It reports foreclosures declined by 10% in January compared to December. That sounds like great news, if it indicates the start of a new trend. It probably doesn't.
RealtyTrac saw 315,716 foreclosure filings on U.S. properties in January. As mentioned, this is 10% fewer than in December, but still 15% more than in January 2009. Not great year-over-year, but the month-over-month decline is reason for optimism, right? Not so fast says RealtyTrac's CEO:
"January foreclosure numbers are exhibiting a pattern very similar to a year ago: a double-digit percentage jump in December foreclosure activity followed by a 10 percent drop in January," said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac "If history repeats itself we will see a surge in the numbers over the next few months as lenders foreclose on delinquent loans where neither the existing loan modification programs or the new short sale and deed-in-lieu of foreclosure alternatives works."
So this probably isn't the beginning of a trend, but more a seasonal variance. I suppose there's a hope that history won't repeat itself, but since I haven't seen any other indicators that the housing market has made a sudden turn for the better, I suspect Saccacio is right.
Here are a few other noteworthy stats from the report:
- Nevada remains the foreclosure capital with the highest ratio of foreclosures per housing unit for the 37th straight month.
- Arizona was 2nd highest, with its foreclosures increasing by 4% month-over-month.
- Foreclosures declined by double digits percentages in California and Florida month-over-month, but the states still remain in the top-three for total foreclosures in January.
- California, Florida and Arizona accounted 44% of all foreclosures nationwide.
- Those three plus Illinois, Michigan and Texas account for 60% of all foreclosures.
- Phoenix was the only top-10 metro area to experience an increase in foreclosures month-over-month.
- Las Vegas was still the worst metro area for foreclosures, with one in every 82 housing units filing.