November's Unemployment Rate in 2010 (...and 2012)

More

The OECD has new estimates about America's GDP and unemployment rate over the next two years. Good news: Their GDP projections grew by 150%. Bad news: They still project growth will be 50% lower than during the 1984 recovery. Free Exchange pulls out the key stats. I have some thoughts toward 2010 and 2012.

In the two years after the end of the 1982 recession, the American economy expanded by 4.5% (1983) and 7.2% (1984), and at the end of that period the American unemployment rate was still above 7%. The OECD projects that the American economy will expand by 2.5% next year, and by perhaps around 3% in 2011. Accordingly, they estimate that at the end of 2011, the American unemployment rate will be just a bit below 9%.

Last week I highlighted a post that argued (with statistics!) that the unemployment rate doesn't have much to do with mid-term elections. The problem with that argument is there has only been one midterm election in the last 50 years with unemployment over 8 percent. It was in 1982 and Reagan got creamed, losing 27 seats in the House. The OECD says unemployment will be in the 8 percent range through 2012. Forget the Mayans. For the Democratic Party, that number is apocalyptic enough.

Jump to comments
Presented by

Derek Thompson is a senior editor at The Atlantic, where he writes about economics, labor markets, and the entertainment business.

Get Today's Top Stories in Your Inbox (preview)

The Time JFK Called the Air Force to Complain About a 'Silly Bastard'

51 years ago, President John F. Kennedy made a very angry phone call.


Elsewhere on the web

Join the Discussion

After you comment, click Post. If you’re not already logged in you will be asked to log in or register. blog comments powered by Disqus

Video

Adventures in Legal Weed

Colorado is now well into its first year as the first state to legalize recreational marijuana. How's it going? James Hamblin visits Aspen.

Video

What Makes a Story Great?

The storytellers behind House of CardsandThis American Life reflect on the creative process.

Video

Tracing Sriracha's Origin to Thailand

Ever wonder how the wildly popular hot sauce got its name? It all started in Si Racha.

Video

Where Confiscated Wildlife Ends Up

A government facility outside of Denver houses more than a million products of the illegal wildlife trade, from tigers and bears to bald eagles.

Video

Is Wine Healthy?

James Hamblin prepares to impress his date with knowledge about the health benefits of wine.

Video

The World's Largest Balloon Festival

Nine days, more than 700 balloons, and a whole lot of hot air

Writers

Up
Down

More in Business

Just In