What Do Today's Jobless Numbers Mean for the Unemployment Rate?

Tomorrow the Bureau of Labor Statistics announces the unemployment rate for August, rounding out a rough summer for job seekers. The unemployment rate in July surprisingly fell to 9.4 percent from June's 9.5 percent, but that 0.1 percentage point drop doesn't tell the whole story. The unemployment rate does not account for part-time workers or workers who have given up looking for jobs, and the drop in unemployment really meant more people were leaving the workforce. As Dan Indiviglio helpfully pointed out last month, "In reality, those who would like a job but don't have one increased by from [10.1] to 10.2 percent."

Today we get a preview-of-sorts for the unemployment picture: The number of people who applied for first-time jobless benefits. Are the numbers good?

Not really. First time applications for jobless benefits fell, but less than anticipated. The most important statistic is that the four-week moving average of initial claims -- which provides the smoothest picture of unemployment trends -- moved to its highest level in a month. As Forbes reports: "The percentage of the eligible population now receiving unemployment insurance increased 0.1 percentage point to 4.7%." Here's the graph of initial claims from Calculated Risk:

Dan's going to post a poll later today asking readers to guess the unemployment number. My vote goes with an 0.1 percentage point increase, to 9.5 percent.