Did the Stimulus Save the Economy?

We've hardly spent $100 billion of stimulus money, but some really smart economists are arguing that the stimulus has basically pivoted the economy (sorry Tim Pawlenty!) Ezra Klein quotes from a Wall Street Journal article, arguing that, without the stimulus package, we might be stalled at 0.0 percent growth through this third quarter. Instead, we're growing at a predicted 3 percent rate. At least that's what Goldman Sachs' chief economist thinks:

For the third quarter, economists at Goldman Sachs & Co. predict the U.S. economy will grow by 3.3%. "Without that extra stimulus, we would be somewhere around zero," said Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist for Goldman.

Other economists aren't so sure that the stimulus was the fulcrum of recovery. One surprising nomination for Hero of the Great Recession: The government stress tests! (Seriously?)

Opinion, however, remains split about which program has had the biggest impact. "I don't think the stimulus was necessarily as effective as people claimed it to be or claim it will be," said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist with Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. He credits the government's "stress tests" of banks, which helped boost confidence on Wall Street and allow banks to raise capital and resume lending.

Well look, I don't know nearly as much about economics as the chief US economists of two of the most well-known financial companies in the world. But the $100 billion of stimulus spent since January represents only four percent of the administration's $2 trillion of economic rescue, including the bank and auto bailouts, the mortgage rescue and so on. Even if it's been effective at holding together Medicaid and state budgets, spurring home and auto purchases, keeping Americans at work and propping up consumer demand, I don't understand how it could be responsible for an additional 3.3% annualized growth in the third quarter.