Skip Navigation

Arnold Kling More

Arnold Kling earned his Ph.D in economics at MIT. He was an economist on the staff of the Federal Reserve Board. From 1986-1994 he worked at Freddie Mac. He started Homefair.com in 1994 and sold it in 1999. His fourth book, From Poverty to Prosperity, co-authored with Nick Schulz, is due out in April of 2009. He blogs regularly at Econlog.

Help Me Understand Leonhardt's Math

By Arnold Kling
Jun 10 2009, 4:10 PM ET Comment

Derek Thompson refers to an analysis by David Leonhardt (it is David, by the way, not Richard) of the New York Times. Leonhardt writes,

The story of today's deficits starts in January 2001, as President Bill Clinton was leaving office. The Congressional Budget Office estimated then that the government would run an average annual surplus of more than $800 billion a year from 2009 to 2012. Today, the government is expected to run a $1.2 trillion annual deficit in those years... About 7 percent [of the $2 trillion swing] comes from the stimulus bill that Mr. Obama signed in February.

If I take 7 percent of $2 trillion, I get $140 billion. The stimulus was $787 billion. I need help with the math.



First, Leonhardt is talking about annual spending, and the stimulus total is for cumulative spending.  OK, so let's multiply $140 billion by four to get cumulative spending through 2012--answer is $560 billion. That still leaves over $200 billion of stimulus spending not accounted for in Leonhardt's calculations. Is there that much left over to be spent after 2012?   What happened to the promise that seventy-five percent of the stimulus would be in the bloodstream by 2011?

Presented by

More at The Atlantic

The Sorry Six-Day History of Facebook, Inc: A Glitch, a Snitch, and a Tumble The Sorry Six-Day History of Facebook, Inc.
Which of Today's Pop Newcomers Will End Up One-Hit Wonders? Which Pop Newcomers Will Be One-Hit Wonders?
Silicon Valley's Next Big Thing: Beer Silicon Valley's Next Big Thing: Beer
The Bee Gees Are Disco Icons, but Robin Gibb Was Pure Pop The Bee Gees Are Disco Icons, but Robin Gibb Was Pure Pop
Can Better Data Keep Students From Dropping Out of College? Can Better Data Keep Students From Dropping Out of College?

Join the Discussion

After you comment, click Post. If you’re not already logged in you will be asked to log in or register.
blog comments powered by Disqus
View All Correspondents

The Biggest Story in Photos

One Year Since the Joplin Tornado

May 23, 2012

Subscribe Now

SAVE 59%! 10 issues JUST $2.45 PER COPY

Facebook

Newsletters

Sign up to receive our free newsletters

(sample)

(sample)

(sample)

(sample)

(sample)

(sample)