The Administration's proposals for altering the regulation of the financial markets are found in an 88-page report entitled Financial Regulatory Reform: A New Foundation: Rebuilding Financial Supervision and Regulation (Treasury Dept., June 17, 2009). This is a well-written report but suffers from two grave weaknesses: prematurity and a failure to address objections.
Now it is true that it is not always necessary to understand a cause in order to be able to eliminate its unwanted effects. If you have typical allergy symptoms, you may get complete relief by taking an antihistamine and not think it necessary to find out what you're allergic to. But generally and in the case of the current economic crisis, if the causes of a problem are not understood it will be impossible to come up with a good solution. The causes of the crisis have not been studied systematically--there is no counterpart to the 9/11 Commission's exhaustive study of the 9/11 terrorist attacks--and they are not obvious though treated as such in the report. The report asserts without evidence or references that the near collapse of the banking industry last September was due to a combination of folly on the part of bankers (in part reflected in their compensation practices), credit-rating agencies, and consumers (gulled into taking on debt, particularly mortgage debt, that they could not afford), and defects in the regulatory structure. There is no mention of errors of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve that pushed interest rates down too far in the early part of this decade. Because houses are bought mainly with debt (for example, an 80 percent mortgage), a reduction in interest rates reduces the cost of owning a house and can and did cause a housing bubble, which when it burst took down along with the homeowners the banks and related institutions that had financed the bubble. The report also fails to mention the deregulation movement in banking, which enabled banks to make much riskier loans than in the old days when regulation discouraged competition in banking. And there is no mention of lax enforcement of existing regulations or the complacency of the economics profession, including its representatives in government, though regulators' failure to spot the evolving crisis is mentioned. There is exaggerated emphasis on mistakes by the banks themselves, and no recognition that a regime of very low interest rates and very light regulation encourages perfectly rational, intelligent bankers to take risks that can, albeit with low probability, precipitate a global financial crisis.
Though the Federal Reserve bears a substantial share of the responsibility for the economic disaster because of its misguided monetary policy, the report proposes to heap heavy new responsibilities on the Fed, and there is no discussion of whether it is capable of shouldering these new responsibilities, given an organizational culture that blinded it to the risks that its monetary policy created. There is no recognition of the risks of competition in so inherently risky a business as banking (that is, lending borrowed capital), and hence the report recommends making banking more competitive by removing remaining restrictions on branch banking, restrictions that limit competition and by doing so may make banking safer.
And because the report attributes the high rate of mortgage and credit card defaults in the current economic situation largely to the ignorance of borrowers and deceit and "unfairness" by lenders, rather than to rational risk taking by borrowers facing very low interest rates and therefore able (in the case of mortgagors) to take advantage of a possibly once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to own their own home, the report proposes the establishment of a new agency with sweeping powers to prevent consumers from taking out risky loans. Sophisticated investors, including large banks, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, are assumed to have been fooled by credit ratings issued by credit-rating agencies, even though such investors are well aware of the conflicts of interest that characterize such agencies (they are paid by the firms whose debt they rate) and the difficulty the agencies have in rating highly complex securities, such as securities (in effect bonds) backed by hundreds or thousands of home mortgages.
The report suggests that originators of mortgage-backed and other securitized debt be required to retain an interest in the security when they sell it, so that they will be penalized if the security turns out to be a dog. The premise is that this debt was sold to suckers. But in fact it was sold to sophisticated investors. They knew a disastrous, nationwide fall in housing prices would make the mortgages packaged in these securities worth much less, but they thought, as did most of the financial and regulatory community, that the risk of such a disaster was remote. But risks that seem remote even to informed observers do sometimes materialize. Only in hindisght are they seen as inevitable and the failure to have predicted them is attributed to stupidity, greed, and recklessness.
The report is premature in a second sense, one also illustrated by the proposals for limiting the provision of credit allowed to high-risk borrowers. In an economic boom, thrift is a way of reducing the amplitude of the business cycle by reducing consumption and increasing savings, savings that can be reallocated to consumption at the bottom of the cycle. But when we're at the bottom, thrift, by reducing consumption, makes it more difficult for the economy to recover, because the less people spend on consumption goods, the less production there is and therefore the higher the unemployment rate, which by reducing incomes further depresses spending, creating a vicious cycle. To tighten credit at the bottom of the cycle is thus bad timing. Furthermore, throwing a raft of proposals at the banking industry while the industry is struggling to regain its footing is sure to distract the banks' management, not to mention the Administration's economic team. There is a danger, in short, of information overload. And, what will further befuddle the industry, some of the proposals are contradictory: for example, the banks are not to make unsafe loans, but the Community Reinvestment Act, which encourages lending to "underserved" individuals and communities, is to be vigorously enforced, even though many of the individuals intended to be protected by the Act and therefore supposed to be favored by lenders are poor credit risks.