Cylically-Adjusted Deficit

More

The CBO's Douglas Elmendorf writes,

Under CBO's baseline assumptions, the cyclically adjusted budget deficit will rise sharply in 2009, to 9 percent of potential GDP (from 2.6 percent in 2008), but then decrease in 2010 and 2011 to 4.7 percent and 2.2 percent of potential GDP, respectively.

This is the right way to distinguish the effect of the recession on the deficit from the effect of policy.  As you can see from the CBO's graph, some of the deficit can be blamed on the recession, but most of it cannot (graph after the jump).


cyclicallyadjustedgraph.png

Jump to comments
Presented by

Arnold Kling

Arnold Kling earned his Ph.D in economics at MIT. He was an economist on the staff of the Federal Reserve Board. From 1986-1994 he worked at Freddie Mac. He started Homefair.com in 1994 and sold it in 1999. His fourth book, From Poverty to Prosperity, co-authored with Nick Schulz, is due out in April of 2009. He blogs regularly at Econlog.
Get Today's Top Stories in Your Inbox (preview)

Sad Desk Lunch: Is This How You Want to Die?

How to avoid working through lunch, and diseases related to social isolation.


Elsewhere on the web

Join the Discussion

After you comment, click Post. If you’re not already logged in you will be asked to log in or register. blog comments powered by Disqus

Video

Where Time Comes From

The clocks that coordinate your cellphone, GPS, and more

Video

Computer Vision Syndrome and You

Save your eyes. Take breaks.

Video

What Happens in 60 Seconds

Quantifying human activity around the world

Writers

Up
Down

More in Business

Just In