Working On Our Backwards Walk

More

When telling a story, it's important to talk about past events in the past tense and present events in the present tense. Otherwise readers are likely to get very confused. This is true for economic stories, just as it is for fairy tales and mystery novels. Let's explore an example. Joe Weisenthal writes:



You could make a very strong argument that the economy isn't stabilizing, it's getting worse. At least along some measures. Sure, we stepped back from the precipice of total collapse courtesy of massive government intervention, but some of the most basic indicators are only getting worse.

In standard bloggy fashion, he provides supporting evidence in the form of a block quote from a Bloomberg story. I'll repost it here:

Americans fell behind on their mortgages and banks seized homes at a record pace in the fourth quarter as unemployment rose to a 15-year high and real estate values tumbled.

Mortgage delinquencies increased to a seasonally adjusted 7.88 percent of all loans, the highest in records going back to 1972, the Mortgage Bankers Association said today. Loans in foreclosure rose to 3.30 percent, also an all-time high.

Emphasis mine. Man, I know that data is necessarily backward looking, but the fourth quarter? We're closer to the fourth quarter of 2009 than we are to the fourth quarter of 2008. There's plenty of relatively bleak current data available to those wishing to paint a dark picture of the economy; no need to muddy the waters by asking everyone to remember how bad things were between five and eight months ago.

Jump to comments

Ryan Avent is The Economist's economics correspondent and the primary contributor to Free Exchange, an economics blog

Get Today's Top Stories in Your Inbox (preview)


Elsewhere on the web

Join the Discussion

After you comment, click Post. If you’re not already logged in you will be asked to log in or register. blog comments powered by Disqus

Video

Miami: The Next Big Start-Up City?

How the city became a center for innovation

Video

Video

A Brief History of Romantic Comedies

From The Atlantic's Chris Orr

Video

Life in 'the New Arctic'

A moving portrait of a fading landscape

Video

Video

The Rise of New York City

A fascinating look at Manhattan in the 1940s

Video

What Is Methane Hydrate?

"Flaming ice" is a vast natural energy source

Video

NASA's Time-Lapse of the Sun

Now with epic dubstep music

Video

Shaken Not Tuned: Cocktail Experiments

Can a tuning fork improve a cocktail?

Video

Video

Is He Cheating? A 1950s Guide

'That little blonde secretary from the office?’

Video

New Yorkers: Vintage Vacuum-Tube Amps

Risking electric shock to restore old amplifiers

Video

The DIY Piano-Bicycle

Everybody needs a hobby

Video

What Does It Take to Make Real Craft Gin?

Tour the Green Hat Gin distillery

Video

Letter From the Editor

The June 2013 issue

Video

What Straights Can Learn From Same-Sex Couples

New insight from decades of research

Video

The End of the Mall Rat

A tribute to that pillar of teen culture

Writers

Up
Down

More in Business

In Focus

Picking up the Pieces After the Tornado in Moore, Oklahoma

Just In