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Megan McArdle

Megan McArdle - Megan McArdle is a senior editor for The Atlantic who writes about business and economics. She has worked at three start-ups, a consulting firm, an investment bank, a disaster recovery firm at Ground Zero, and The Economist. She is currently on leave.
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Megan was born and raised on the Upper West Side of Manhattan, and yes, she does enjoy her lattes, as well as the occasional extra-dry skim-milk cappuccino. Her checkered work history includes three start-ups, four years as a technology project manager for a boutique consulting firm, a summer as an associate at an investment bank, and a year spent as sort of an executive copy girl for one of the disaster-recovery firms at Ground Zero � all before the age of 30.

While working at Ground Zero, Megan started Live From the WTC, a blog focused on economics, business, and cooking. She may or may not have been the first major economics blogger, depending on whether we are allowed to throw outlying variables such as Brad Delong out of the set. From there it was but a few steps down the slippery slope to freelance journalism. She has worked in various capacities for The Economist, where she wrote about economics and oversaw the founding of Free Exchange, the magazine's economics blog. She has also maintained her own blog, Asymmetrical Information, which moved to The Atlantic, along with its owner, in August 2007.

Megan holds a bachelor's degree in English literature from the University of Pennsylvania and an M.B.A. from the University of Chicago. After a lifetime as a New Yorker, she now resides in northwest Washington, D.C., where she is still trying to figure out what one does with an apartment larger than 400 square feet.

What's the Point of a Little Gas Tax?

By Megan McArdle
May 1 2009, 1:16 PM ET Comment

Ryan Avent writes of the gas tax that it's trivial in relation to the normal fluctuations of the market:




. . . any politically tolerable carbon price, enacted by cap-and-trade or tax, would add mere cents to the price of a gallon of gas. I don't remember the exact data point, but I recall George Bush railing against Lieberman-Warner by saying that it would add 40 cents to the price of gasoline by the year 2020 (or something like that). At a time when prices were rising by well over a dollar in a matter of months, this was not a particularly frightening statement.

But people hate the idea of expensive gas, and it could be the case that even a small potential increase in prices would make it more difficult to pass a carbon price. For this reason, some greens (Dave Roberts, for instance) argue that a carbon pricing system should exempt transportation. I disagree -- the idea of pricing is that emission reductions will occur in difficult to predict places, which makes me extremely reluctant to exempt such a large sector of the economy -- but I understand where he's coming from.

But the most important thing to understand about the above is that consumers are far more vulnerable to market-driven swings in the price of gasoline than they are to regulation-driven changes. Any potential government-engineered gas price increase pales in comparison to the spike markets delivered in 2007 and 2008.

There are two things about this that trouble me.  The first is that Ryan and I may conceive of a 40 cent increase in 2020 as trivial.  On the other hand, I don't drive to work every day, and when I do, my commute is three miles each way.  Traffic is a vastly bigger problem for me than the cost of gas; I fill up my tank about once a month.  For households out in the Great Beyond, a permanent 40 cent a gallon increase is quite a lot--particularly if the 2008 prices were a bubble, and the permanent cost of a gallon of gas is more like $2.00.

Second, if Ryan is right, why are we doing this?  It did take a lot of increase to change driving behavior, which is why in Europe, taxes can account for as much as 90% of the price of a liter of gas.   There's a plausible argument that a 40 cent tax won't do much to change driving habits.  But then, why have the 40 cent tax at all?  If you have a Pigovian tax that doesn't alter the production of the externality, cap and trave starts to look a lot less like controlling our carbon emissions, and a lot more like taxing people who aren't Ryan Avent and Megan McArdle to top up government revenue.

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