A Few Words About Inflation

More

A lot of folks out there seem to be pretty worried about inflation, despite the fact that price levels have been flat for months and there's considerably slack in the economy. Some even manage to worry about hyperinflation, that is, extremely rapid and uncontrolled increase in the price level. This strikes me as extremely wrongheaded. It fails to place the current American debt-load in any kind of historical context, and more importantly, it posits a world where the Fed wouldn't respond to several years of double-digit annual inflation by raising interest rates. That's just not the world we live in.



And yet, people worry. Today, for instance, Hendy Blodget warns us to "Brace for Hyperinflation," and he cites a John Hussman report as evidence -- a report that looks to me like a great deal of hooey. Here's an example of what I mean:

This policy can only have one of two effects: either it will crowd out over $1 trillion of gross domestic investment that would otherwise have occurred if the appropriate losses had been wiped off the ledger (instead of making bank bondholders whole), or it will result in a stunning and durable increase in the quantity of base money, which will ultimately be accompanied not by a year or two of 5-6% inflation, but most probably by a near-doubling of the U.S. price level over the next decade.

Scary red bolding entirely Hussman's. A near-doubling of the U.S. price level over the next decade is consistent not with 5% or 6% inflation, but with...7% annual inflation. To put the hyperinflation issue in context, Weimar Germany had a monthly rate of inflation of about 3,000,000% in 1923, and as of last November, Zimbabwe had an estimated monthly inflation rate of 13,000,000,000%. At these rates, prices double multiple times per day. An America with rates even close to these levels is one in which the nation's political institutions have all completely collapsed.

Jump to comments

Ryan Avent is The Economist's economics correspondent and the primary contributor to Free Exchange, an economics blog

Get Today's Top Stories in Your Inbox (preview)


Elsewhere on the web

Join the Discussion

After you comment, click Post. If you’re not already logged in you will be asked to log in or register. blog comments powered by Disqus

Video

Miami: The Next Big Start-Up City?

How the city became a center for innovation

Video

Video

A Brief History of Romantic Comedies

From The Atlantic's Chris Orr

Video

Life in 'the New Arctic'

A moving portrait of a fading landscape

Video

Video

The Rise of New York City

A fascinating look at Manhattan in the 1940s

Video

What Is Methane Hydrate?

"Flaming ice" is a vast natural energy source

Video

NASA's Time-Lapse of the Sun

Now with epic dubstep music

Video

Shaken Not Tuned: Cocktail Experiments

Can a tuning fork improve a cocktail?

Video

Video

Is He Cheating? A 1950s Guide

'That little blonde secretary from the office?’

Video

New Yorkers: Vintage Vacuum-Tube Amps

Risking electric shock to restore old amplifiers

Video

The DIY Piano-Bicycle

Everybody needs a hobby

Video

What Does It Take to Make Real Craft Gin?

Tour the Green Hat Gin distillery

Video

Letter From the Editor

The June 2013 issue

Video

What Straights Can Learn From Same-Sex Couples

New insight from decades of research

Video

The End of the Mall Rat

A tribute to that pillar of teen culture

Writers

Up
Down

More in Business

In Focus

Picking up the Pieces After the Tornado in Moore, Oklahoma

Just In