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Who will make the stock market perform better?
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There's been a bunch of ridiculous blather about whether Obama is good or bad for the stock market. Conservatives argue he's pushing it down. Democrats retort that if so, he seems to be making Europe even worse than America. Conservatives rejoinder that yes, indeed, the US president affects more than local stock markets. Democrats scream that anyway, the markets go up more during Democratic administrations than Republican ones. Conservatives point out that this can probably be explained more by fiscal and monetary stimulus, or sheer luck, than wise, long term policy.
I think the entire thing is mostly nonsense; the data points are too few; they are not independent of each other; and the labels (D) and (R) do not mean the same thing over time--Nixon is more credibly called a Democrat on anything that ought to affect GDP or the stock markets, except that he was far too left wing for today's Democratic party. So before any returns come in, let me make the obvious, fearless prediction: no matter who gets elected, the stock market is going to go up next year, and GDP is going to go down, not because Democrats are good for the market or bad for the economy, but because they can hardly do otherwise. If Obama or McCain finishes his first term at brisk growth levels in stock prices and GDP, it will not be because of his party's peculiar genius for running things; it will be because even a dead cat will bounce if you drop it from a far enough height.
I think the entire thing is mostly nonsense; the data points are too few; they are not independent of each other; and the labels (D) and (R) do not mean the same thing over time--Nixon is more credibly called a Democrat on anything that ought to affect GDP or the stock markets, except that he was far too left wing for today's Democratic party. So before any returns come in, let me make the obvious, fearless prediction: no matter who gets elected, the stock market is going to go up next year, and GDP is going to go down, not because Democrats are good for the market or bad for the economy, but because they can hardly do otherwise. If Obama or McCain finishes his first term at brisk growth levels in stock prices and GDP, it will not be because of his party's peculiar genius for running things; it will be because even a dead cat will bounce if you drop it from a far enough height.
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