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Megan McArdle

Megan McArdle - Megan McArdle is a senior editor for The Atlantic who writes about business and economics. She has worked at three start-ups, a consulting firm, an investment bank, a disaster recovery firm at Ground Zero, and The Economist. More

Megan was born and raised on the Upper West Side of Manhattan, and yes, she does enjoy her lattes, as well as the occasional extra-dry skim-milk cappuccino. Her checkered work history includes three start-ups, four years as a technology project manager for a boutique consulting firm, a summer as an associate at an investment bank, and a year spent as sort of an executive copy girl for one of the disaster-recovery firms at Ground Zero … all before the age of 30.

While working at Ground Zero, Megan started Live From the WTC, a blog focused on economics, business, and cooking. She may or may not have been the first major economics blogger, depending on whether we are allowed to throw outlying variables such as Brad Delong out of the set. From there it was but a few steps down the slippery slope to freelance journalism. She has worked in various capacities for The Economist, where she wrote about economics and oversaw the founding of Free Exchange, the magazine's economics blog. She has also maintained her own blog, Asymmetrical Information, which moved to The Atlantic, along with its owner, in August 2007.

Megan holds a bachelor's degree in English literature from the University of Pennsylvania and an M.B.A. from the University of Chicago. After a lifetime as a New Yorker, she now resides in northwest Washington, D.C., where she is still trying to figure out what one does with an apartment larger than 400 square feet.

Who will make the stock market perform better?

By Megan McArdle
Nov 4 2008, 9:45 AM ET Comment

There's been a bunch of ridiculous blather about whether Obama is good or bad for the stock market.  Conservatives argue he's pushing it down.  Democrats retort that if so, he seems to be making Europe even worse than America.  Conservatives rejoinder that yes, indeed, the US president affects more than local stock markets.  Democrats scream that anyway, the markets go up more during Democratic administrations than Republican ones.  Conservatives point out that this can probably be explained more by fiscal and monetary stimulus, or sheer luck, than wise, long term policy.

I think the entire thing is mostly nonsense; the data points are too few; they are not independent of each other; and the labels (D) and (R) do not mean the same thing over time--Nixon is more credibly called a Democrat on anything that ought to affect GDP or the stock markets, except that he was far too left wing for today's Democratic party.  So before any returns come in, let me make the obvious, fearless prediction:  no matter who gets elected, the stock market is going to go up next year, and GDP is going to go down, not because Democrats are good for the market or bad for the economy, but because they can hardly do otherwise.  If Obama or McCain finishes his first term at brisk growth levels in stock prices and GDP, it will not be because of his party's peculiar genius for running things; it will be because even a dead cat will bounce if you drop it from a far enough height.


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