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Predictions are hard, especially about the future
ByFrom Greg Mankiw:
Monday, November 03, 2008
Galbraith on Mainstream Economics

I was struck yesterday by an excerpt from an interview with economist James Galbraith: But
there are at least 15,000 professional economists in this country, and
you're saying only two or three of them foresaw the mortgage crisis? Ten or 12 would be closer than two or three. What does that say about the field of economics, which claims to be a science? It's an enormous blot on the reputation of the profession. There are thousands of economists. Most of them teach. And most of them teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. Which is why the field of heterodox economics has done so much better at predictions. Just look at how prescient The New Industrial State turned out to be . . .













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