In it to win it

I understand that primary voters may be supporting Hillary and Mitt Romney for entirely non-strategic reasons; that they simply think theirs is the best candidate for the job. I'm pretty sure that this is why, for example, Greg Mankiw has signed on with the Romney campaign. I don't find it hard to believe that Mitt Romney is the best of all the Republican candidates; indeed, I think that's probably true, in terms of whom I would most like to see govern the country.

But economic advisors shouldn't behave too strategically; they can't be effective with a candidate who is too far from their beliefs. Voters in a primary, on the other hand, aren't just picking the person who is closest to their beliefs; they are picking the person who is closes to their beliefs, and can beat the candidate from the other party, who presumably is farther from their beliefs.

Mitt Romney is having trouble inspiring Republican voters, which bodes ill for his fate in the general election. Hillary Clinton inspires voters on both sides, but what she inspires in Republicans and many independants is a visceral and passionate loathing.

Despite the chirpy news stories about long-time Republicans changing their party affiliation, Democrats will probably win the 2008 election for two reasons: disgusted independents voting Democratic, and Republicans staying home in despair. But independents don't like Hillary, which is why she does the worst of the major Democratic candidates in head-to-head polling. And Republicans almost all hate her. Put her up and the Republicans don't need to bother with a turnout operation; their voters would pull themselves to the polling place with their tongues if that's what was necessary to cast a ballot against That Woman. Given how little daylight there is between the Democratic candidates on policy matters, I find it hard to understand why you would vote to nominate the candidate with a strong chance of losing the general election.

It's easier to understand on the Republican side--a fair number of my Republican friends join me in trembling at the thought of Giuliani in office. Still, I presume that most Republicans would prefer to have McCain actually in office than a Romney loss to Obama.