Alexis C. Madrigal

Alexis Madrigal is a senior editor at The Atlantic, where he oversees the Technology channel. He's the author of Powering the Dream: The History and Promise of Green Technology. More

The New York Observer calls Madrigal "for all intents and purposes, the perfect modern reporter." He co-founded Longshot magazine, a high-speed media experiment that garnered attention from The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and the BBC. While at Wired.com, he built Wired Science into one of the most popular blogs in the world. The site was nominated for best magazine blog by the MPA and best science Web site in the 2009 Webby Awards. He also co-founded Haiti ReWired, a groundbreaking community dedicated to the discussion of technology, infrastructure, and the future of Haiti.

He's spoken at Stanford, CalTech, Berkeley, SXSW, E3, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and his writing was anthologized in Best Technology Writing 2010 (Yale University Press).

Madrigal is a visiting scholar at the University of California at Berkeley's Office for the History of Science and Technology. Born in Mexico City, he grew up in the exurbs north of Portland, Oregon, and now lives in Oakland.

Vladimir Putin's (Motorized Hang Glider) Flight Into the Anthropocene

The action man plans to lead cranes along part of the way on their migratory route.

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An Operation Migration pilot in the air with cranes (Operation Migration).

Vladimir Putin is reportedly going to fly a motorized hang glider dressed in a crane-like costume to help the endangered birds find their migratory way. The birds are born in captivity and need help learning where to fly.

You may recall Vladimir Putin, Action Man, has performed many stunts, sometimes shirtless. But this is the first time, to my knowledge, that he's participated in one of the stranger rituals of the Anthropocene, our human-driven geological age. 

The phenomenon of leading cranes on migration began several years ago, as detailed in one of my very favorite magazine stories of all time. Jon Mooallem followed the ultralight pilots of Operation Migration as they led a batch of whooping cranes across Kentucky dressed in outfits "that looked like a cross between a beekeeping suit and a Ku Klux Klan get-up." Here's how he explains why this is such a significant and symbolic effort:

Operation Migration exemplifies the kind of ingenious, unwavering work that needs to be done -- and that we'll need to keep doing, maybe forever, even as the strenuous administrative challenge of micromanaging so much of the natural world begins to blur the line between conservation and domestication. Already, it has come to this on planet Earth: men dressed like birds, teaching birds to fly.

The news reports I've seen do not go into much detail about how real the effort that Putin will be participating in actually is, or how he'll be costumed, or where the birds were reared. But it's just worth noting that it's certainly possible Putin will be part of a legitimate operation, and that on the scale of the globe, anyone doing this is more bizarre than Putin doing anything else, and Putin doing this is certainly the most bizarre of all.

The Best Craigslist 'Missed Connections' from Burning Man

"You, had a green goatee, and no pants. A cow patterned blazer, No shirt. Sicc tatts."

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This couple has already made the connection, it appears (Reuters).

The Playa, home of Burning Man, has a reputation for sex, drugs, and music that bears a conceptual resemblance to rock'n'roll.

But maybe it's also a place where the seed of love can be planted, and then that seed could grow into a sprout over the festival, and then scooped up into a container and driven back to San Francisco in a furry car and transplanted in the fertile soil of the Bay Area.

Or that's the idea behind these amazing Burning Man Missed Connections posted on San Francisco's Craiglist board. People with yellow fuzzy tap dancing shoes looking for fellow travelers with chill vibes.

Burningman EFT workshop - m4w - 41 (tent EFT Burning man)

You are a slender Caucasian girl in EFT session wearing an orange yellow pareo, I was sitting next to you and at the end wanted to talk to you when a friend appeared and I missed the opportunity.
You are on my mind...because I could 'feel' your person and that there was something special.
If you read this could you be so kind to send me a note.

You may of been my true-love-prince! - w4m - 24

I, was wearing purple polka-dotted crotchless panties, yellow fuzzy tap dancing shoes and rainbow knee-high socks with swirly peace signs. On my tits, I had disco pasties. I have sicc multi-colored dreads.

You, had a green goatee, and no pants. A cow patterned blazer, No shirt. Sicc tatts.

I saw you hula'n on the multi-colored flying dragon art-car as I was riding my TIGHT cruzer thru da sicc playa dust.

We made eye-contact and never saw each again! Hope the universe brings us together. Namaste.

P.s. my name is Raven.

p.p.s we saw each other at burning man.

Burning Man - is "Ms. Jackson" Playa-name reading this? - m4w

if you were at Burning Man by the shave-ice (on Sunday) over at 7th&F and if you're reading this "Ms Jackson" (your playa name)-- then you'll know that 3-Dolphins want to talk to you again.
U had such a good vibe.
xo
david/3-dolphins

shadyvil <3 (burning man)

i ran into some wonderful residents of shadyvil on friday night in front of a warm fire near 2:30 and A.
we scaled the automatic subconscious then you helped take me home.
i wish we had exchanged more information! thank you again for the amazing company <3
~giggles

Easy Does It - w4m - 29

You: Beautiful blonde, green eyes, with awesome food tattoos
Me: The dude in the blue fedora
Where: The New Easy on Lakeshore
When: 8PM Monday 8/27

We shared a smoke on the back patio, talked about your upcoming trip to Paris, the awesome cocktails we were enjoying, and how Burning Man isn't what it used to be. I wasn't sure at the time if you were 'with' the other gal you were with so I left it alone. My mistake - hoping you'll read this and let me make it right.

Russian devil-girl at Burning Man - mw4w - 42

We met at the "Oh No You Didn't" on Thursday night. Please contact us. Allie and Tom

Via @LauraGlu

How Low Can You Go: Record Arctic Sea-Ice Melt Continues

Last week, the press was awash with reports of a new sea ice low in the Arctic. The previous low ever recorded was 4.17 million square kilometers of ice, and in late August, the sea ice extent as measured by the National Snow and Ice Data Center, fell to 4.1 million square kilometers. 

At the time, there were some questions about how quickly the sea ice might recover. We might have hit a new low, but it could just be an early low and in September, things might bounce back. So far, that's not happening. Here's a chart I made of the most recent data from the NSIDC:

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At 3.56 million square kilometers, this new record means that there is roughly half as much ice at this minimum as there was just a few decades ago. For context, here's the way the NSIDC charts it:

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It is worth noting that the NSIDC calculated that there was more sea ice on September 4 than on September 3, so we could be reaching the end of the melt. On the other hand, a similar pause occurred on August 30 before the decline continued. 

Found: World's Oldest Message in a Bottle, Part of 1914 Citizen-Science Experiment

A charming and fitting end to an experiment that began in 1914 with roots way back in the 1840s.

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AP

A Scottish fisherman has found the world's oldest message in a bottle, the Guinness Book of World Records confirmed last week. It is 98 years old, and was cast into the ocean by Captain C. Hunter Brown*, a scientist at the Glasgow School of Navigation, who was studying the currents in the North Sea. 

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AP

The bottle was one of 1,890 bottles released on June 10, 1914, and the 315th to be entered into Captain Brown's log, which is still kept and updated by Marine Scotland Science in Aberdeen.

I'd say this qualifies as a nearly century-old citizen science experiment, though that's not a term scientists would have been familiar with then. Just take a look at the card contained in the bottle (which could be sent back to Hunter without postage). These drift bottles were data traps, intended to capture information with the help of regular people.

"Drift bottles gave oceanographers at the start of the last century important information that allowed them to create pictures of the patterns of water circulation in the seas around Scotland," explained Bill Turrell, Head of Marine Ecosystems with Marine Scotland Science explained in the official press release on the event. "These images were used to underpin further research -- such as determining the drift of herring larvae from spawning grounds, which helped scientists understand the life cycle of this key species."

But we don't have to take Turrell's word for it. Google scanned some old Scottish fisheries reports that contain reports from Brown's experiments. Sadly, copyright law prevents us from looking at the 1914 experiment, but we have full-text access to an earlier operation from 1907, which appears to have been the test case for the later, larger bottle drop. In fact, here's Brown's planned card, as shown in the 1907 version. 

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And we even have one of the charts of water circulation that he created with the data from his bottles.

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Brownr's experiment was modeled on earlier surface current drift-bottle work by T. Wemyss Fulton, as well as similar studies by the United States Hydrographic Office. The entire field got its start when a British Navy office, Commander Becher, decided to use Nautical Magazine as a place to collect messages found in bottles by mariners across the world. They tracked 119 bottles this way, all of which you can see and plot in a Google Books scan. Altogether, the data Becher collected could be summarized thusly (by a magazine reporter a century ago):

Altogether, the uniformity in the direction of the courses of the bottles between the points of departure and arrival was found to be very remarkable, making all due allowance, of course, for some of the bottle voyages which were thought to be too capricious to render much scientific service, but which, in reality, were not capricious at all, and depended on physical causes not sufficiently well understood at that time.

The very first bottle researchers were content to see where floating bottles went. Later researchers including Fulton had weighted the bottle necks with lead such that they floated *just* beneath the surface to avoid wind interference. 

But Brown was after a more difficult measurement: he wanted to get down into the depths and measure the currents just a few feet from the ocean floor. He considered a system that would have been tethered to a float on the surface, but discarded that idea. Eventually, what he settled on was this:

The present experiments were conducted by a special drift bottle, the device of Mr. G. P. Bidder. This is a bottle so weighted as just to float in sea-water; a long copper wire is then attached to it by which it is caused to sink, but as soon as the wire trails upon the bottom the bottle tends to float again. Accordingly it remains floating a few inches above the sea bottom, is carried along by the bottom current, and in the course of time may be scooped up by a trawl net or found stranded on a beach.

It's fair to say that Brown would not have considered that the "course of time" might run to nearly a hundred years.

The use of drift bottles continued for decades after Brown's experiment. Here's one gloriously pink card included in American oceanographic studies from circa 1960.

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And here's the kind of guy who was tossing those bottles overboard hoping that someone would find them and return the data, according to the NOAA photo archives.

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And this is the last drift bottle card that Americans have collected, a gem from Alaska in 2011. Thanks, Elvis.

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* This story initially incorrectly used C. Hunter Brown's middle name instead of his last to refer to him throughout the story. This has been fixed and I regret the error.

Via @elikint

Visa's Tooth Fairy App Calculates the Going Rate for Baby Teeth

Are you paying your children below market rate for their teeth? Here's an app that can relieve you of this troubling anxiety.

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Gorelova/Shutterstock/Rebecca J. Rosen

I can't decide if the following news is grisly, hilarious, or postmodernly depressing. So, let me quote the USA Today article that broke the story about Visa's baby-tooth-value calculator app:

Nobody wants to be the parent whose child is "the talk at recess," because of a frugal Tooth Fairy, says Amy Moncarz, a second-grade teacher at Lucy V. Barnsley Elementary School in Rockville, Md. Discrepancies in tooth price can lead to a conversation parents might want to avoid: the existence of the Tooth Fairy itself.

To help parents calculate the going rate for teeth, Visa on Tuesday is launching an app for iPhone and iPad and a calculator on its Facebook page. The app uses the survey's data to determine the average payoff a child can expect based on a parent's gender, education, location, age and income. The app also shows how much the recommended dollar amount was worth when the parent was 8.

Visa says the average across the country is $3 per tooth. I played a bit with the app, holding age, gender, and location steady while playing with the household income and education level variables. The smaller the amount I put in for household income, the greater the size of the average tooth fairy's gift. In fact, I was only able to get calculator to output $5 by setting my household income to $20k per year and selecting that my highest level of educational attainment was high school. Grad school degree holders making more than $150,000 per year gave their kids an average of $1 per tooth.

While parents have wanted their kids to fit in for a lot longer than Visa has been making iPhone apps, this kind of computational conformity is newly available to parents. You want your kids to fit in? Now you can make sure they do -- in a statistically valid way! 

But in measuring something like this, you may change it. As a business consultant told USA Today, "The app would be a driver of tooth inflation, not a tracker. I would predict a psychological bidding game." Next stop: The Twenty-Spot Tooth Fairy. 

The Atlantic Is Headed to the Upper Midwest And We Need Your Help

We're coming to the upper midwest to check out the startup scene in Chicago, Grand Rapids, Lansing, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh.

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In two weeks, Sarah Rich and I are hitting the road for Start-Up Nation, our annual trek to a region of the country to check out its start-up businesses and culture. Last year, we burned rubber across the south, racing from Washington DC all the way to Shreveport before concluding our trip in New Orleans. Along the way, we were helped by entrepreneurs, development groups, and startup mentors. They helped us dig into what makes a place tick from the local coffeeshop where everyone meets up to discuss deals to the incubators where promising ideas can grow up.

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This year, we're starting the trip in Chicago and finishing up in Pittsburgh. Call it a Rust Belt Tour, if that's not a pejorative. If you're starting a business along this route (or even near it), we want to hear from you. While we're primarily interested in tech (very broadly construed), interesting entrepreneurs of all types should feel free to get in touch.

And stay tuned because we're working on putting together a few events, so that we can meet as many people as possible. 

This year, we want to build maps of the startup scene in each city we visit. That means we want to map not just where startups have their offices, but also where they get coffees and beers and meetings and employees and money. I've created a map here -- http://goo.gl/maps/yYvx6 -- and we're planning on adding these kinds of details as we drive along. But note that I've made that map editable by anyone. So, add your business, add your friend's company, add the tech incubator that your city set up.

Or, as always, you can get in touch via Twitter and email. Feel free to tweet at @alexismadrigal or @sarahrich or to email me at amadrigal[at]theatlantic.com. We'll be using the hashtag #startupnation2012.

P.S. Like last year, we want food recommendations, too. We love to eat.

Sarah Palin Ran a Faster Marathon Than Paul Ryan

By now, you've probably heard that Paul Ryan said he ran a sub-three-hour marathon, when really he'd run a 4:01:25 marathon. Kudos to the Letsrun.com message board for raising the yellow flag and Runner's World for following up on it. 

Now, as someone who is an aspirational marathon runner, I'm impressed by anyone who actually completes a 26.2 mile course and I try to stay out of our political coverage, so let me recommend Jim Fallows on the meaning of the exaggeration

In reading the coverage, what's fascinating to me is 1) How active and impressive the Letsrun.com forum is; 2) how many vice presidential candidates in recent years have run marathons; 3) how good Sarah Palin is at the marathon. Check out this handy chart I made with Runner's World's numbers.

PalinBeatsRyan.jpg
What's awe-inducing about Palin's feat is that she accomplished it at 41 after having four children, while Ryan's mark was set at 20 and Edwards' best came at 30. There are only about 40 thousand women who were that fast or faster in 2011. (More comparisons: The average marathon time for a woman aged 40-44 in 2011 was 4:47:34. The average for a man aged 20-24 was 4:22:48.) 

If you're wondering what pace these race times correspond to, a four-hour marathon requires running 9:09 miles, which doesn't seem that hard until you've run a couple dozen of them. 

Survey: 75% of Homeless Youth Use at Least One Social Network

Even without a roof over their heads, young adults find ways to access the Internet.

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Reuters

In a small but intriguing study, social scientists found that 75 percent of the homeless youth they surveyed use social networks and that their usage patterns were remarkably similar to college students. 

Led by the University of Alabama's Rosanna Guadagno, they surveyed 237 college kids and 65 homeless youth, both with an average age of a little over 19 years old. While a greater percentage of the students were on social networks (over 90 percent), both groups of users reported spending more than an hour per day using Facebook, Twitter, and the like. 

Guadagno argues that the results should lead us to rethink the concept of the digital divide of Internet haves and have nots. "To the extent that our findings show a 'digital divide' between undergraduates at a four-year university and age-matched participants in a program for homeless young adults, it is mainly in types of Internet use and not access to the Internet, and that divide is relatively minor," we read. "Since it is clear that the proportions of undergraduates and homeless young adults accessing social networking sites are similar, we assert that the term digital divide is not descriptive of the young adult population."

The work appeared online this week in the journal Computers in Human Behavior.

The Apollo 11 Landing Site Superimposed on a Baseball Diamond

Our moon landing may have been grand, but our astronauts did not go far.

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As we've reflected on Neil Armstrong's death* and the Curiosity Rover's arrival on Mars, I've found myself trying to comprehend two radically different scales: 1) the sheer immensity of our solar system and 2) the tiny scale of our actual missions to other celestial bodies. 

I'm not sure I'll ever be able to think in the hundreds of thousands (or millions) of miles. At a certain size, the numbers seem so large they become arbitrary. 

The second scale, though, is graspable. The problem is that we don't have an intuitive sense of distance on the Moon or Mars. Particularly with Curiosity, we have nothing we can use as a reference size. The same is true for certain Apollo photographs, particularly because they've been distorted by the lens of time, too.

So, I appreciate that Maria Popova brought back this fantastic visualization of the Apollo 11 mission at Ex.plore.com. It presents the mission's travels superimposed on a baseball diamond. German space enthusiast Thomas Schwagmeier created the map for NASA's History office and it's not only revealing, but beautiful. The original "traverse map" on which it was based is seen below. (You can click on them both to see them at full size.)

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* My initial post misspelled Neil as 'Neal,' a mistake that I truly regret.

Apple, Summoning Its Mighty App-Squashing Powers, Spikes Drone Tracker

A new app-store rejection should remind us that Apple's gatekeeping may not be good for journalism.

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Danger Room reports that an app that reports drone strikes to your phone has been rejected from Apple's store for various reasons that seem to boil down to this one: Apple doesn't like it. The student-designed app simply presents existing media accounts of strikes in our open-secret war. It plots them on a map and can push those updates to you. That's it. And yet Apple ultimately found it "objectionable and crude," after issuing a series of rejections with other rationales. 

Apple controls a large chunk of the smartphone market and as part of their end-to-end service, they filter every app that developers would like to present on the iPhone. The company's gatekeeping for the app store helps tamp down the number of crappy apps, but it has long been a theoretical restriction on the free flow of information. 

The company says it's just trying to keep "objectionable" apps off the iPhone, but what does that word mean to Apple's corporate mind? 

Journalists, specifically, seemed at risk of running afoul of the Apple authorities.

"The most important issue is whether news organizations should get in bed with a company that makes unilateral and non-transparent decisions like the ones Apple has been making about content in all kinds of ways," Dan Gillmor asked back in 2010. "I say they should think hard about it, and answer either in the negative or insist on iron-clad contracts with Apple that prohibit the hardware company from any kind of interference with the journalism, ever."

Brian Chen at Wired's Gadget Lab warned Apple could end up in charge of the news and issued a call for transparency in the way the app store handled journalistic apps.

"Working with Apple's current opaque policy, we're left to trust that Apple will do the right thing," Chen wrote. "And time and time again, Apple's App Store reviewers have been proven fallible, as recently shown by the rejection of Mark Fiore's Pulitzer-winning cartoon. Apple rejected the toon because it 'ridicules public figures,' and after coming under fire in the press, the company approved the app. But in reversing its decision, Apple still did not make its content policy clear."

But Apple did not really make the policy clear and media organizations continued to flock to the app store and the issue largely went to the backburner. But this problem has not gone away. Two big differences between now and 2010, though, are 1) Android has become a legitimate competitor to Apple's iOS and 2) mobile-optimized HTML5 sites can deliver much of the functionality that apps can. Android is known for much looser app approval policies and anyone can build an HTML5 site on the open web, so we've got more options than we once did. 

But that's not going to change Apple's behavior until or unless their customers begin to drop the app store for more open waters.

On Obama's Reddit Appearance

For the next year or so, slide decks across America will have a new photo that proves social media is changing the world. This is it:

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That's President Obama, purportedly during his Ask Me Anything session on the social network Reddit. Ask Me Anythings allow Reddit users to pose queries of all kinds of people from some guy from the show Community to Darrell Issa to the President. 

In short, the conceit is that a famous person climbs down out of his or her bubble and just gets real with the Reddit community. They get intimate. They get honest. 

And sometimes that really works, at least as well as a Terry Gross interview on Fresh Air. The sheer weirdness of the Reddit community's questions can unlock bits and pieces of people who've had to function within the envelope of their public personas. And that's cool and fun and hilarious and sometimes profound.

But, the Reddit AMA is a terrible format for extracting information from a politician.

Think about it this way: a politician gets a captive audience (of say, 200,000 people) to pay attention to and identify with him. The audience gets to ask a bunch of questions from which the politician selects only those he wants to answer. Those he does answer, he can answer at any length and with any level of detail. There are no follow-up questions and answers, no real penalties for ducking.

The AMA presumption is unmediated access by which I mean questions can be about Anything, ("And I mean anything!") and they lack media filtering. Finally, Redditors can hit the President with all those questions that the media won't!!! 

Well, OK. But maybe just asking the question is not really the tough part. Take a look for yourself at the President's answers. It's milquetoast defense after quip after simple explainer. It's a campaign stop (or as Tim Maly put it, "a factory tour"). 

Do you get to bathe in the warm glow of charisma, fame, and power? Sure. Did President Obama give a single answer that he wouldn't to a standard media outlet? I don't think so. In the 10 answers Obama gave, there was not a single one that'd be interesting to Redditors if it had appeared somewhere else. 

Much as many would like to believe that the medium determines the message, a modern politician is never unmediated. Not in a pie shop in Pennsylvania, not at a basketball game, not while having dinner, not on the phone with NASA, not on TV, not doing a Reddit AMA. Reddit is not a mic accidentally left on during a private moment. The kind of intimacy and honesty that Redditors crave does not scale up to national politics, where no one ever lets down his or her guard. Instead of using the stiffness and formality of the MSM to drive his message home, Obama simply used the looseness and casual banter of Reddit to drive his message home. Here more than in almost anything else: Tech is not the answer to the problems of modern politics.* 

This is not to rain on Reddit's parade or to deny the slickness of the Obama campaign's surprise appearance. Nice job everyone, take a bow. But we'll know Reddit has really arrived as a political community when he uses a visit to announce a policy change they've been promoting, perhaps around marijuana policy or civil liberties broadly construed. Until then, it's all kissing babies and shaking hands, only with more LOLs.

* Philip Bump asked me whether this was "the goal or reaction" to Obama's AMA. Which is a fair question. If you asked people whether they thought Reddit's technology would change politics, most people (even on Reddit) would say no. But the hope that technology can flatten hierarchies and disintermediate the media lay beneath the excitement about this development. A President recognized a new constituency that came together without the traditional hierarchies of media, that has few leaders, and that answers to no one. This is all possible because of technology, and (I think, anyway) that's why half my Twitter feed filled up with this event. Sure, it was the novelty, but the novelty portends other things. 

Maybe Investors' Exuberance Over Apple *Is* Rational

It's hard to look at a company that investors value at $630 billion and not think that irrational exuberance is propping up its share price. But a new analysis by Reuters shows that, at least compared with Microsoft, Apple's not overvalued. In fact, the company's price-to-earnings ratio has, generally speaking, dropped as its market cap grew.

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Reuters

As Felix Salmon explains:

What this says to me is that the market in Apple shares looks a lot more rational than the market in Microsoft shares. Investors will pay huge multiples for Apple shares when the company looks cheap, but not when the company looks expensive. When Apple breaks the half-trillion barrier, that's despite the fact that its p/e ratio is low; when Microsoft breaks that barrier, it's because its p/e ratio is high.

The Imaginary Art Museum at Gitmo

A few minutes ago, I received an email proclaiming the opening of a new cultural institution, "The Guantanamo Bay Museum of Art and History."

Several artists are showing work in the Tipton Three Exhibition Space, and there's a critical studies center as well. If you look up the place on Google Maps, you can see it right there.

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But The Guantanamo Bay Museum of Art and History is not actually a real place, but a clever alternate reality fiction predicated on the idea that Gitmo's closed and that Americans wanted to come to terms with what went on there.

"The museum, located at the former site of the Guantanamo Bay Detention Camp in Cuba, is an institution dedicated to critically remembering the U.S. prison which was active between 2005 and 2012 before it was permanently decommissioned and closed," we read in the press release. 

But more than 150 prisoners remain at Gitmo. And last I checked, most Americans were not blocking off their evenings and weekends to explore the civil-rights abuses of the war on terror.

While creating imaginary entities is a tried-and-true protest technique, its application in this specific case is brilliant. Gitmo is a peculiar invention that only exists thanks to a tangle of legal rulings that allow Americans to pretend that Gitmo is not a part of America, even though it's governed and controlled by Americans. No one really gets to see the place, as reporters' and other visitors' experiences are crafted by the authorities. The detention camp, as a place where people are held and interrogated, remains an imaginary place for all but the prisoners and the national security officials who operate it. 

The imaginary museum draws its power from this resonance: If Gitmo exists because of one fiction, perhaps it can be closed by another? Or put another (augmented) way, germane to this digital project: if we change Gitmo's website, can it actually change its physical and legal reality? That's what the museum's organizers are hoping. 

"The museum is the result of a collaboration between artists/theorists and is meant to act as both a critique of the Guantanamo Bay Detention Facility as well as assert the possibility of its closure," Rene Guerne, one of its organizers, told me in an email. "In this sense, it is a 'real' museum, although I cannot promise that there is a physical building in Guantanamo Bay."

The State of Play in the Mobile Industry in One Venn Diagram

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Zach Teutsch/Rosen-Teutsch, Inc.

The smartphone market is not all that complicated right now. When you look at operating profits, as Asymco has done, it's clear that Apple makes almost all the money, while Samsung and HTC fight somewhat successfully for the scraps. 

But actually selling phones for profit is not the only success factor in the industry, as Samsung found out last week. You've got to have some patents to protect yourself from lawsuits and competitors.

So, with that in mind, above is a radically simple way to look at the mobile phone industry. Which is one reason that the operating profits chart looks like this:

asymco_566.png

The Mystery at the Heart of This Year's Record-Setting Arctic Ice Melt

You have probably heard that the Arctic has less sea ice right now than humans have ever recorded. The new record, set yesterday, beat the previous low, which was measured in September 2007. 

"By itself it's just a number, and occasionally records are going to get set," said National Snow and Ice Data Center scientist Walt Meier in an official statement. "But in the context of what's happened in the last several years and throughout the satellite record, it's an indication that the Arctic sea ice cover is fundamentally changing."

There are two odd things about this sad record of global change. 

First, it's only late August, several weeks before the traditional time when the sea ice melting stopped. That could mean that the melt is stopping earlier and could begin to recover earlier. Or we may have several weeks to go of melting, in which case, this year's low could not just break but shatter 2007's record. 

Second, if the melt continues for days or weeks more, the melt will end up catastrophically lower than anyone anticipated.

After 2007's low -- which scared many Arctic scientists into statements like, "The Arctic is screaming" -- the sea ice up north recovered, though not to pre-2007 levels. Counting this year, the six years with the least sea ice on record all occurred in the last six years. 

In that sense, it is not a monumental surprise that 2012 did not see an overabundance of sea ice or return to the norms of earlier this century. On the other hand, the catastrophic drop off of sea ice in the last few weeks was not something that was easy to model or predict. 

What happened?

***

Each year, a program called the Sea Ice Outlook gathers predictions about sea ice from different teams of scientists. The groups use different techniques to predict what the next summer's ice melt season might look like. Some do straight statistics, others build models, and other groups use heuristics or a combination of methods. Teams can submit in June, July, and August. In all cases, they are all trying to guess how much sea ice will be left in the Arctic come mid-September, which (as noted above) had traditionally been the low point. The measure that scientists use to describe the sea ice's extent is the millions of square kilometers of ice that our satellites can see from orbit.

In May of this year, it looked as if the Arctic was going to have a year much like the past four, if a little worse. A lot of ice would melt, more than in any of the years before or since 2007's record-setting low, but none predicted a catastrophic year. The median guess was 4.4 million square kilometers of sea ice would be left, and the band was pretty tight around that number, with only a single group predicting a sea ice extent of 4.1 million square kilometers or lower. A few numbers for comparison: The average low from 1979 to 2000 was 6.7 million square kilometers. In 2010 and 2011, 4.9 and 4.6 million square kilometers of sea ice remained in September. The record low was 4.17 million square kilometers of sea ice in 2007.

And it is this last number that the Arctic crashed through this week with a measurement of 4.1 million square kilometers of sea ice left. 

Now, the modelers may not turn out to have been wrong if, as we mentioned above, the sea ice melt season ends early. "We'll see how September turns out," Robert Grumbine, an ice modeler with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration who worked on three of the predictions, told me. "It isn't unheard of for the annual minimum to be about now, rather than in September."

Some of the more recent (July and August) predictions for the Sea Ice Outlook have revised their estimates downwards on the basis of the early summer. Nonetheless, it still stands: going into this summer, we were not expecting a record low for sea ice.

And now here's the most recent data. 

seaice.jpg

What's befuddling about 2012, relative to 2007, is that the Arctic has not seen the kind of ice-melting weather that 2007 did. "I'm at a loss at this loss," wrote sea ice blogger (yes they exist!) Neven Acropolis. "The 2007 record that stunned everyone, gets shattered without 2007 weather conditions."

Unknown unknowns aside, one frightening possibility exists. For years, scientists have been warning that Arctic sea ice is thinning. Thinner ice melts more quickly. But when we traditionally measure sea ice, scientists aren't looking at the mass of the ice, just the surface extent. 

Unfortunately, as the University of Washington's Polar Science Center explains, we can't monitor sea ice volume easily.

Sea ice volume is an important climate indicator. It depends on both ice thickness and extent and therefore more directly tied to climate forcing than extent alone. However, Arctic sea ice volume cannot currently be observed continuously. Observations from satellites, Navy submarines, moorings, and field measurements are all limited in space and time.

So, scientists have to take these limited readings and build a model that estimates the sea ice volume. They call it PIOMAS, a catchy acronym for the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System. Obviously, as with any model, there are limitations to its predictive power. But in recent years, and even more dramatically in recent weeks, PIOMAS has been showing a major anomaly relative to the longtime average in ice thickness. Even where there has been ice in the Arctic, it's much thinner than it used to be.

BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.png

If this year's melt continues and the amount of sea ice in the Arctic reaches even lower, it may be confirmation that the ice really is that thin and easier to melt, perhaps introducing other dynamics that seem poised to accelerate the decline of the system. The climate change signal, in other words, is growing stronger as the Arctic moves toward ice-free summers. Or here's Jennifer Francis of Rutgers, as quoted on Dot Earth:

The fact that the ice is so dramatically thinner now than it was only 20 years ago means that it is vulnerable to any abnormal weather event or fluctuation in ocean currents. If the "perfect storm" of atmospheric and oceanic conditions that led to the 2007 record, or the patterns that reduced ice this summer, happened back in the thick-ice era, sea-ice loss would not be making headlines. Following this summer's new record ice loss, the Arctic will enter a winter with even less ice than ever before, leading to even thinner ice, which barring any monumental external events like a major volcanic eruption, will likely perpetuate the trend in sea ice decline.

We are all trying to understand a system that has entered territory never seen before, and I think scientists are naturally cautious in their interpretations and predictions of what's to come. Models were formulated with understanding of the familiar system, which may explain why some model simulations lag observations in losing ice.


Curiosity Rover Busts Out the Telephoto Lens

Even better photographs of Mt. Sharp, the rover's eventual science destination.

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In the latest of NASA's stunning images from Mars, the Jet Propulsion Lab team released this photograph of the "layered buttes" at the base of Mt. Sharp, the Curiosity rover's eventual target terrain. 

The image was taken with the 100-millimeter Mastcam, and white balanced for how the rocks would look with Earth's light and atmosphere. (If you were standing looking at this scene on Mars, everything would look redder.) For scale, the mound directly in the center of the image is about 300 feet high. 

The team also released a mosaic of images showing the very peak of Mt. Sharp, the mountain in the center of Gale Crater, the depression in which the rover is sitting. The rover won't ascend to the 18,000-foot peak, but will head to the base of the mountain. (The image below has also been white balanced for earth conditions.)

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Google Improved Maternity Leave, Post-Partum Attrition Dropped by 50%

Google's data-driven management might just be able to find the right set of incentives and work arrangements to make careers easier on moms.

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Reuters

Amid all the handwringing about what technology companies can do to recruit and retain women in their ranks, we don't hear a lot of solutions. But here's an obvious thing that tech companies can do: increase the length of maternity leave and pay a full salary for its duration. 

It makes a huge difference in keeping female employees, we read in The Times.

Another time Google was losing women was after they had babies. The attrition rate for postpartum women was twice that for other employees. In response, Google lengthened maternity leave to five months from three and changed it from partial pay to full pay. Attrition decreased by 50 percent. 

We'll be checking up on the other big tech companies' maternity-leave policies, but let's note that this particular problem is not specific to the technology industry (though it is somewhat specific to the United States). That said, the tech industry may be more likely than most to solve it. If they choose to optimize for this particular variable, Google's data-driven management might be able to find the right set of incentives and work arrangements to make post-partum careers better.



Via Claire Diaz-Ortiz.

What Apple's Legal Win Over Samsung Means for You, Technology, Design, and the World

Everybody who makes or buys cell phones will be affected by Apple's big patent win over Samsung. We break down the winners and losers.

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Apple's victory last week in district court, in which the world's richest company was awarded a billion dollars in damages, is one of the year's biggest events in technology. 

It's also complex and parsing the winners and losers across Silicon Valley and beyond isn't that easy. Luckily, tech journalists are ON IT. They've been cranking out explainers for days, delineating what it all means for you and Google and innovation and technology broadly and patent law, etc. So, we decided to round them all up in one place. 

Here's what Apple's win means for...

You:
Get ready for the Apple tax, at least in the short term. After its stunning victory against rival device-maker Samsung Electronics Co., experts say consumers should expect smartphones, tablets and other mobile devices that license various Apple Inc. design and software innovations to be more expensive to produce.
-- After Verdict, Prepare for the 'Apple Tax'

We're likely to see big changes to the ways that operating systems, form factors and everything else that makes up "user experience" function. For Apple, it means business as usual.
-- What the Apple vs Samsung Verdict Means for Consumers

The outcome will probably mean a broader range of devices and more options for consumers as rivals seek to avoid costly legal tussles, said Carl Howe, an analyst at Yankee Group. "This is a big win for Apple," said Howe, whose firm is based in Boston. "It's good for innovation. It says that if you create something new, others can't just piggyback on it. From a competition point of view, it says create your own stuff. It says copying is not OK."
-- Apple Patent Victory Seen Spurring Wider Range Of Smartphones

Today's verdict should not be viewed as a win for Apple, but as a loss for the American consumer. It will lead to fewer choices, less innovation, and potentially higher prices. It is unfortunate that patent law can be manipulated to give one company a monopoly over rectangles with rounded corners, or technology that is being improved every day by Samsung and other companies. Consumers have the right to choices, and they know what they are buying when they purchase Samsung products.
--Samsung's post-verdict statement

Technology

And what of the patent process that has given Apple such leverage?

Richard Posner, a well-respected federal judge in another Apple-versus-Android case (this one, which he threw out of court, involved Google's Motorola unit), has famously called said there are "serious problems" with the current patent system, warranting an overhaul. We're stuck with what we have for the moment, however.

And if Apple can abuse that off-the-rails system to thwart innovation and the iterative process that sees all tech companies build on the successes of the past, the most valuable company in the world will have more power than what it has richly earned through smart business practices.

The cases in Seoul, San Jose and around the world are about everyone's future. For people who believe in competition in technology, and freedom in how we use it, Friday's events were bleak, indeed.

--Apple crushes Samsung in quest for global tech domination

Samsung:
Several of Samsung's budget-oriented Android phones and older flagship devices may eventually disappear from the market. The silver lining for Samsung is that many of those devices are nearing the end of their lifespans, or aren't designed to be for sale very long. (Certainly none have a lifespan like Apple's iPhone 3GS, released more than three years ago and still available today.) Samsung will fight Apple on import bans, and may succeed in keeping devices on the market or at least creating a delay. But -- for now -- Samsung's current flagship smartphone and tablet products will remain on sale, and you can bet Samsung's future smartphones and tablets will be increasingly divergent from Apple's.
--What the Apple vs. Samsung verdict means for Android

I think this is actually a sizable win for Samsung. Why? It only cost $1 billion to become the #2 most profitable mobile company. Remember how much Microsoft paid for Skype? $8 billion. So, for 1/8th of a Skype Samsung took RIM's place and kicked HTC's behind. Not too bad. 

Unless the judge rules Samsung can't sell its products. Even then I bet Samsung arrives at a nice licensing deal with Apple.

--Robert Scoble on the verdict

The future of design

Bill Flora, creative director at a design firm in Seattle called Tectonic, acknowledged both positive and negative feelings about the verdict...

He said the decision could also create a "minefield" for product designers, in which they are constantly second-guessing whether functions will step on someone else's patents. Mr. Flora is concerned, for example, that Apple's patent on the pinch-to-zoom function covers a gesture that now is so common that touch screen products without it would be like cars with square or triangular steering wheels. "It's very much like a circular steering wheel," he said.

--Apple-Samsung Case Muddies the Future of Innovations

Apple and Samsung's relationship (Samsung makes components of Apple products)

While Samsung Electronics is reeling from a patent pounding by its smartphone rival Apple Inc, this is unlikely to damage the other part of their relationship - where Samsung is the sole supplier of Apple-designed chips that power the iPhone and iPad.

At an emergency meeting in Seoul early on Sunday following the damning U.S. legal defeat, the South Korean group's post mortem was led by vice chairman Choi Gee-sung and the head of the mobile business JK Shin, rather than by CEO Kwon Oh-hyun, whose primary role is in charge of the components business. 

 The clear message from Samsung is that a strict internal firewall between its handset business and its components operations remains intact.

-- Analysis: Friend and foe; Samsung, Apple won't want to damage parts deal

Android and Google

Google, owner of the world's largest Web search engine, lets mobile-phone manufacturers weave its Android operating system into their handsets at no charge. It suffered a setback on Aug. 24, when a California jury said Samsung, the biggest user of Android, infringed Apple patents. 

"This verdict is a major victory for Apple vis a vis the Android ecosystem," said Toni Sacconaghi, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., in a research report today. "That said, we don't think it is a game-changing loss for Android."

--Samsung-Apple patent verdict a blow to Google's Android

Other smartphone makers:

"The other makers are now scrambling" to find alternatives, said Rob Enderle, a leading technology analyst based in San Jose.

Seo Won-seok, a Seoul-based analyst at Korea Investment said that the popular zooming and bounce-back functions the jury said Samsung stole from Apple will be hard to replicate. 

The companies could opt to pay Apple licensing fees for access to the technology or develop smarter technology to create similar features that don't violate the patent - at a cost likely to be passed onto consumers.

-- Apple's $1B Patent Verdict Could Corner Market

Microsoft:
My only observation on all this, since I haven't followed the Apple vs. Samsung proceedings in anything but the most cursory way, is that Microsoft often advances when its competitors fail. Exhibit A: Xbox vs. Sony PlayStation. In a number of cases, Microsoft's marketshare in a given space has grown not because of anything the Softies did proactively, but because of its rivals' missteps. Might Windows Phone be another example of this? Thoughts?
-- The Real Winner in Apple vs Samsung: Microsoft?

Can You Judge a Lion By His Roar? Sadly, No

A lion's roar doesn't tell you much about whether an animal is a king of the jungle, or a joker.

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These lions just mated (Reuters).

A lifetime of Disney movies has trained me to have certain expectations about animal sounds, most especially with regard to the King of the Jungle, the lion. The best lion has the best roar. Them's just the rules.

But now, courtesy of Ed Yong's eagle eye, we have scientific evidence that a lion's roar says very little about an animal's role in the jungle's hierarchy. A team analyzed the roars of 24 lions collected over decades in an effort to discern whether there were meaningful correlations between the features of the roar and the animal's sexual fitness. 

"No evidence that acoustic variables were related to male condition was found, indicating that sexual selection might only be a weak force modulating the lion's roar," the researchers concluded in a 2007 paper

The vocalizations of the male lions were not highly correlated with other characteristics either, not even how nice and shiny (and dreamy!) his mane is. 

"The acoustic features of male roars neither varied with mane color nor with mane length," they wrote. "Both mane color and mane length are signals of male status and have been characterized as costly signals, because larger manes and darker hair increase the surface temperature and decrease the rates of heat transfer, which can harm sperm production."

About the only thing the researchers could tell from was whether the lion was a male or a female. The smaller females roared with a slightly higher fundamental frequency (195 Hz versus 207 Hz). 

The researchers do have another theory about what a lion's call signals: "Lion roars may have mainly been selected to effectively advertise territorial boundaries," the paper speculated. Not come hither, but step off.


Curiosity Scientists Select Random Rock on Mars to Shoot With Laser

N165 is the (un)luckiest bit of basalt on Mars. Which is saying something because there is a lot of basalt on Mars.

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Meet the most boring rock in the world. It's probably basalt, an igneous rock, which makes it like many, many other rocks and pebbles all over the world. 

What makes it interesting is that the world in question is Mars, and this random little piece of stone happens to be sitting near the Mars Curiosity rover on the floor of the Gale crater. 

And, N165, as it is being temporarily called, also happens to have a nice, flat face that happens to be in the range of the rover's laser. 

That all makes this poor little guy a perfect test rock for everyone's favorite Martian robot to fire upon. The rover is going to fire 30 laser bursts over 10 seconds, capturing the light generated by the tiny bit of plasma that the laser will create with each blast. Each element (e.g.oxygen) and rock (e.g. basalt) has a distinctive signature that the ChemCam can detect. This spectrographic technique is fast and will be deployed thousands of times on Mars. 

What do they expect to find when they blast a tiny hole in N165? Well, not much.  "We didn't pick it for its science value per se," said Roger Wiens, the ChemCam principal investigator.

They already think they know, in fact, what they're looking at in this small rock. "If I were to make my guesses, I would probably guess this is a typical Mars basalt," Wiens continued. "Basaltic rocks making up a large percentage of all the igneous rocks on Mars or maybe even all of them... So basalts typically have 48 percent silicon dioxide, and percent amounts of iron, calcium, magnesium, potassium oxides, as well. We're not really expecting any surprises."

Yup, this really is just another rock. On Mars.

(Coda: perhaps the most disappointing thing about travel to outer space is that all the same rules apply. Like, it turns out that the laws of the universe are the laws of the universe. And deep down, don't we all just wish that we would go to Mars and suddenly *everything* would be different. On the other hand, it's only the stability of physical laws across these vast distances that allows us to study and understand planets and galaxies and the geology of Mars. So maybe it's a wash.)

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